Recession fears are gripping Wall Street and global equity markets, leading to heated discussions about an emergency rate cut by the Fed. Traders are pricing in a 60% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut next week, as seen in the sharp swings in the US bond market. US government bond yields have fallen to their lowest levels in a year.
Investors on Wall Street are avoiding risk after weaker-than-expected jobs data, slower wage growth and rising unemployment. The Sahm Rule recession indicator has been triggered, leading many to question whether the Fed made a mistake by waiting too long to ease policy.
Professor Jeremy Siegel from the University of Pennsylvania called for an emergency 75 basis point rate cut by the Fed and another cut in September, saying that if the Fed does not act, the market could panic. Economist Paul Krugman also stressed the need for the Fed to cut interest rates urgently to avoid a stock market sell-off.
Traders expect the Fed to cut rates further later in the year. Goldman Sachs raised its recession forecast to 25% and said the Fed needs to cut rates faster to support the economy, reflecting concerns about inflation and the current priority of supporting the economy.
source: BI reference