As if things weren’t bad enough, the crypto industry once again faced its “darkest hour” - at around 2 p.m. today, the price of Bitcoin fell to $48,934.8, a 24-hour drop of nearly 15%; the price of Ethereum once fell below $2,100 to $2,084.69, a 24-hour drop of more than 22%.
Following 94, 321, 519, a new anniversary has been added - 805.
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After the Bitcoin spot ETF and Ethereum spot ETF were approved and put online for trading, the crypto industry was affected by many factors, including the world's political and economic situation, US economic development and market expectations, as well as the industry's own development conditions.
Although Bitcoin and Ethereum both fell by 20% today, we are still optimistic about the market in the second half of this year and next year. In this market where the divergence between long and short positions is the most serious, whether it is primary or secondary, as long as you make the right direction, it is the most profitable time.
Whether it is the interest rate cut in September, the SEC’s regulatory policy, or Trump’s support for crypto, from the perspective of the US economy and politics, it is a big boon to the crypto market.
Analogous to the past two cycles, the current bull market is Stage 1, that is, Bitcoin leads the rise, Bitcoin market share increases, and the market share of Shansai coins drops sharply. This period may continue for a few months. Next year will be the bull market Stage 2 led by Shansai coins.
Holding BTC is still the best choice in the past six months, but you can consider exchanging it for ETH or Solana in the second half of this year. Since the ETF was approved, the ETF has increased its holdings by 303,000 BTC in six months, holding a total of 950,000 BTC, accounting for 4.5% of all BTC.
ETH is very suitable for building a position in the second half of this year. After ETH starts trading on Nasdaq on July 23 this year, it will repeat the process of Grayscale selling BTC at the beginning of this year. The selling process may last for half a month to one month until the market can take over Grayscale's selling. Once this critical point is reached, it is a very good time to build a position. It is recommended to pay attention to the BTC/ETH exchange rate in the second half of this year. Once the Grayscale net outflow ends, it is the time to build a position (the logic refers to the process of Grayscale BTC net outflow ending in February this year and BTC rising 20%-30% in one month). In fact, the market has just fallen sharply, which is already a very good opportunity and position.
Solana is still optimistic in the long term, and there are hot products every quarter. Those who have goods should still hold on firmly and not sell them. Those who don’t have goods can consider building positions at low prices. In addition, SolanaETF has been submitted and is expected to make progress next year. The SEC also cancelled the judgment that Solana is a security. After the hit DePIN at the end of last year, Solanaecosystem launched another hit Pump (one-stop meme coin + casino) this year, earning one million US dollars a day and 80 million US dollars in half a year.
The money in the cryptocurrency world comes from the capital pool of the financial market.
Under macroeconomic regulation, such as when interest rates are cut and money is printed in large quantities, these funds will naturally flow to the trading market. Since 2020, the crypto market has begun to be highly positively correlated with the US stock market. Since the beginning of 2021, when the crypto industry grew into a trillion-dollar track, it has been closely related to macroeconomic interest rates. In the 17-20 cycle, it was not related to interest rates because the volume was too small. The amount of hot money in the market can be measured by the amount of stablecoins minted. At the end of 2021, the number of stablecoins in the entire market reached an ATH of 162 billion US dollars. Even after half a year of rising offensive, the stable amount is still only 150 billion US dollars.
BTC has passed the ETF and has Nasdaq buying, but ETH has not passed the ETF six months ago. The liquidity is not enough, and it is far from the process of liquidity overflow.
As for BTC (and its ecosystem), although the macro outlook is positive in the long term, you can consider exchanging it for ETH/Solana in the second half of this year:
From the perspective of the six-month timeline, the inflow of BTC ETF is still quite healthy. ETF holds about 950,000 BTC, with an increase of 303,000 BTC in six months, and ETF holders account for 4.5% of the total BTC.
Trump pays close attention to BTC. This can be seen from his attitude towards mining, energy, interest rate cuts and regulation at the Nashville conference.
The impact of interest rate cuts on BTC should be the greatest, and funds will flow into BTC first.
The water in the reservoir has a characteristic, that is, it will gradually flow from the big pool to the small pool. Therefore, for the small coins at the bottom of the risk market food chain, it must first be "ample market liquidity → stock market and commodities → Bitcoin Ethereum → a number of small coins". Only after Bitcoin carries a large amount of capital inflow will it overflow to the small coins at the bottom. Now that Bitcoin has not exploded, it will take some time to expect those air coins to rise. But then again, many value coins are not too expensive now, and they are in the golden period of gradual layout and diversified investment, especially after the current big wash, which are basically at historical lows, which means that the income from the layout of competing coins at this time will be higher than Bitcoin. I hope everyone will study it by themselves and live up to the opportunities given by the times. Remember that sentence:
Opportunities come from falling, and risks come from rising.
