Golden Weekly is a weekly blockchain industry summary column launched by Golden Finance, covering the week's key news, mining information, project dynamics, technological progress and other industry dynamics. This article is one of the news weekly, taking you through this week's blockchain industry events.
Headlines
▌Fed mouthpiece: Inflation is no longer an obstacle to the Fed's rate cuts
Nick Timiraos, the "Federal Reserve mouthpiece," quickly commented on the Fed's FOMC statement, saying that there was no clear signal from this meeting that interest rates would be cut in September, but there were some very meaningful changes in the first half of the statement: the dual mandate is back, and inflation has been reduced from "high" to "high to some extent."
Nick Timiraos, the "Federal Reserve mouthpiece": The Fed statement said, "The committee is concerned about both aspects of its dual mandate." The statement deleted the wording that policymakers have described as "highly concerned" about inflation risks in the past two years. This shift is significant because it suggests that inflation may no longer be an obstacle to rate cuts, especially if the labor market continues to cool.
▌VanEck CEO: Bitcoin market value will reach half of gold market value
VanEck CEO says Bitcoin’s market value will reach half of gold’s total market value, reaching $350,000 per coin.
Furthermore, VanEck’s CEO also stated that if central banks adopted Bitcoin and it became part of the financial system, its value would be in the “millions.”
▌Trump campaign raises $21 million during 2024 Bitcoin conference
Former U.S. President Donald J. Trump's campaign team raised $21 million during the 2024 Bitcoin Conference. It is reported that these funds mainly came from a fundraising event after Trump's speech on Saturday. The event was organized by Tennessee Republican Senator Bill Hagerty and reportedly attended by 100 people. Bitcoin Magazine CEO said: "This is the second highest amount of money raised by Trump in his three presidential campaigns. The funds come from a combination of the industry and whales/OGs."
Trump has previously reported personally owning between $100,000 and $250,000 worth of cryptocurrency in 2022, and according to Federal Election Commission filings, his campaign has raised a total of $221 million and currently has $128 million in cash on hand.
▌Tether CEO: Tether is preparing to launch a new open source project
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino posted on the X platform that Tether is preparing to launch a new open source project that will become an important part of the future ecosystem.
policy
New York authorities announce charges against scammers using “fake cryptocurrency asset recovery business”
U.S. District Attorney Alvin Bragg of Manhattan announced criminal charges against an individual for defrauding clients using a “fake cryptocurrency asset recovery business.”
In a notice on August 1, the New York District Attorney's Office said it had charged Michael Lauchlan with three counts of grand theft and two counts of fraud for stealing funds from Coin Dispute Network users. According to the district attorney, Michael Lauchlan claimed to be able to track and recover lost crypto assets, but in fact it defrauded customers of fees and stole Ether from at least three users.
▌The U.S. Senate Majority Leader proposed a bill to oppose the Supreme Court's partial support for Trump's immunity claim
On August 1, local time, U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and other Democratic lawmakers introduced a bill to refute the Supreme Court's previous ruling on former President Trump's presidential immunity. According to this bill, the President and Vice President of the United States have no immunity from violations of federal criminal law while in office. The bill also clarifies that the government department responsible for deciding who federal criminal law applies to is Congress, not the Supreme Court. On July 1, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump enjoyed a certain degree of immunity from criminal prosecution in a federal case involving alleged "interference in the 2020 election" and instructed the lower court to reconsider the case and determine which actions are "official acts" that cannot be prosecuted.
▌U.S. Congressman Cynthia Lummis formally proposed the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act
Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming formally proposed the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act on July 31, local time. The bill will instruct the U.S. government to begin establishing a reserve fund for scarce decentralized assets. More specifically, the bill will establish a "decentralized secure Bitcoin network treasury" controlled by the U.S. Treasury Department. The bill also instructs legislators and bureaucrats to develop strict network security parameters and other physical security measures to ensure that Bitcoin funds are not stolen. The bill also proposes a goal of gradually accumulating 1 million bitcoins.
▌Biden adviser joins Harris PAC, it is unclear whether it involves cryptocurrency
Anita Dunn, a senior adviser to US President Biden, is about to leave the White House to join Future Forward, a political action committee (PAC) organization supporting 2024 Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris. The PAC plans to invest at least $300 million to support Harris' campaign.
Anita Dunn has previously met with cryptocurrency industry representatives in a personal capacity to discuss digital asset regulation, but it is unclear whether cryptocurrencies will be mentioned at the PAC’s events.
▌Bernstein: Harris's cryptocurrency shift will hardly sway voters
Bernstein analysts believe that U.S. Vice President Harris' latest shift in the cryptocurrency field is unlikely to influence key voters in the presidential election. Although Harris actively reached out to companies in the crypto industry in an attempt to improve relations, her moves were seen as reactive and lacked necessary policy changes. In contrast, former President Donald Trump won strong support from the crypto community through pro-crypto policies and direct engagement.
▌Bahamas launches digital asset DARE 2024 bill
The Securities Commission of the Bahamas announced that the Bahamian Parliament has passed the Digital Assets and Registered Exchanges Act, 2024 (DARE 2024), a move that solidifies the country’s position in the digital asset regulatory space. The bill builds on the foundation laid by the DARE Act, 2020, introducing comprehensive reforms designed to address the changing landscape of the digital asset and cryptocurrency markets.
Christina Rolle, Executive Director of the Securities Commission of the Bahamas, said: “DARE 2024 represents a new standard in digital asset regulation. The framework we have created not only focuses on investor protection but also encourages responsible innovation, placing the Bahamas at the forefront of global digital asset regulation.”
▌Judge approves former FTX executive Ryan Salame’s request to delay prison
A U.S. federal judge has granted a motion filed by lawyers for former FTX Digital Markets co-CEO Ryan Salame to delay his jail time until October 13.
▌Crypto lawyer: Harris should ask the SEC chairman to resign to show his attitude of promoting the development of the crypto economy during his administration
JohnE Deaton, a crypto supporter and well-known lawyer, posted on the X platform that the most important thing that US Vice President Harris can do is to ask SEC Chairman Gary Gensler to resign immediately to show her serious attitude towards restarting Bitcoin and promoting the digital asset economy during her administration. It can be said that no one has caused more harm to individual investors than Gensler, including SBF.
Blockchain Applications
▌Base blockchain team launches customizable on-chain identity tool Basenames
Base product head Thomas Vieira unveiled a new product called Basenames at Coinbase’s BaseCamp summit on Thursday, a customizable on-chain identity tool designed to make blockchain addresses, which are a combination of letters and numbers, easier to read.
It is reported that users can connect many different wallets to the application, including MetaMask, Rainbow and Coinbase Wallet, to register names. There is also a web page where users can search for other Basename addresses to interact and customize their profiles by adding personal introductions, social media accounts and relevant skills.
The product will be available first to all BaseCamp attendees and will roll out to the public in the coming weeks.
▌SEND: Solana phone pre-orderers have 24 hours to claim SEND token airdrop
Blinks ecological project SEND posted on the X platform that it is conducting its first airdrop to the top communities on Solana. Each address holding Solana's mobile phone reservation token Chapter2 Preorder Token can receive 500 SEND tokens for free. The collection window is only open for 24 hours, after which all unclaimed tokens will be returned to the airdrop vault.
According to previous news, the Blinks project SEND released token economics, in which Blinks builders, Sendit NFT holders and top Solana communities were allocated a total of 25%.
▌Bitcoin L2 protocol is gaining adoption, but security still needs to be improved
At the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, dozens of protocols that drive innovation in the Bitcoin blockchain were showcased. Bitlayer co-founder Charlie Hu said Franklin Templeton is exploring unlocking benefits for customers through the Bitcoin network by supporting protocols such as Bitlayer. Build On Bitcoin co-founder Alexei Zamyatin talked about the security issues of Bitcoin L2 and introduced the research on the virtual machine BitVM. B2 Network co-founder Calvin believes that Bitcoin can be an entry point to the non-crypto world and emphasized the importance of continuing to build and expand Bitcoin infrastructure.
▌Aave DAO launches Lido custom market and opens it to third-party developers
Aave DAO launches a custom pool designed specifically for Lido Finance’s stETH and wstETH. The new Aave V3 ETH Lido pool paves the way for additional custom financial solutions in the future and is open to third-party developers, allowing them to build additional specialized pools optimized for specific use cases.
Lido will provide liquidity incentives to users and reward developers for innovating use cases using staked ETH to support further growth of the Lido ecosystem. Aave’s V3 flexible architecture allows for multiple custom deployments to meet unique risk profiles, such as segregated collateral markets or institutional use cases.
This new Lido pool is the first custom deployment on Aave V3, demonstrating the protocol’s versatility and ability to optimize specific use cases.
Cryptocurrency
▌After Bitcoin halving, mining companies turn to AI and chip manufacturing to expand their business
The profit squeeze following Bitcoin’s halving has put pressure on the business model of bitcoin miners, with some larger companies viewing the industry-wide obstacle as an opportunity to expand their operations or launch a hostile takeover. Consolidation in the bitcoin mining industry is expected to occur over the next 18 months, with Colorado-based Riot Platforms announcing on Tuesday that it has acquired Block Mining following a hostile takeover of another company, Bitfarms, last month.
While others are diversifying their revenues through innovations such as AI computing and chip manufacturing, Bitdeer uses only 36% of its electricity and is currently evaluating investing its electricity into AI and high-performance computing (HPC) companies to generate revenue. Currently, a large number of data centers are being built and evaluated for use as AI or high-performance computing data centers. Bitdeer is also moving into manufacturing chips specifically for Bitcoin mining.
▌VanEck consultant: The logic of the Fed buying Bitcoin instead of Treasury bonds is based on the fixed total amount of Bitcoin
Gabor Gurbacs, Tether strategist and VanEck consultant, said on the X platform that the logic of the Fed buying Bitcoin instead of US Treasuries is based on the fundamental difference between the two assets: one can be printed infinitely and the other cannot. This is essentially a hard asset acquisition strategy, similar to what central banks do with gold. By switching from Treasury bonds that can be printed at will to Bitcoin, which has a fixed supply, the Fed aims to diversify its asset holdings and potentially protect against inflation and monetary instability. In fact, this is a hedge against itself, which most central banks currently achieve mainly by holding gold. Bitcoin is increasingly being included in the hedging portfolio of central bank portfolios.
▌US presidential candidate Kennedy: Only Bitcoin can guarantee the dollar's status as a reserve currency
U.S. presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. believes that U.S. policymakers are quickly realizing the “inevitability” of Bitcoin and are scrambling to develop a coherent digital asset strategy to preserve the country’s fiscal dominance. Kennedy said that only Bitcoin can guarantee the dollar’s reserve currency status.
Solana-based PYUSD stablecoin reaches nearly $240 million in supply since launch in May
According to data from the Dune analytics dashboard cited by the Solana Foundation, the Solana-based PYUSD stablecoin currently has a supply of nearly $240 million since its launch in May, while the supply of the Ethereum-based PYUSD token is approximately $348 million. PYUSD on Ethereum was launched nearly a year ago.
“This rapid growth underscores the strength and efficiency of the Solana network,” said Sheraz Shere, General Manager of Payments at the Solana Foundation.
▌BlackRock: We expect to see crypto ETFs in model portfolios by the end of the year or next year
Samara Cohen, chief investment officer of ETFs and index investing at BlackRock, discussed the iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA) and expects to see allocations to crypto ETFs in model portfolios by the end of this year or in 2025.
▌Opinion: The United States will include Bitcoin in its balance sheet or strategic reserves in the next 10 to 15 years
Anthony Pompliano, CEO of Professional Capital, predicts that the United States will include Bitcoin in its balance sheet or strategic reserves in the next 10 to 15 years, but the key lies in how active the United States is. Pompliano said that Bitcoin dominates his portfolio, and Solana is the second largest investment. Investment in Solana began last year when the price was between $45 and $48, and has continued to increase since then. He is optimistic about Solana's prospects and believes that its activity growth rate may exceed that of Ethereum.
Pompliano also mentioned that he believes Solana can eat into Ethereum's market share in certain areas, thereby driving its price up. Although he is optimistic about the long-term prospects of Bitcoin and Solana, he also talked about mistakes in investment, especially the failure to seize early investment opportunities like DoorDash. He believes that these experiences have made him realize the importance of understanding portfolio construction and capital allocation.
▌Survey: Women earn more than men in the crypto industry
According to Pantera Capital’s salary survey, women in the crypto industry earn 15% more than men. This is a bright spot in the crypto industry, especially when compared to traditional industries where women typically earn only 84% of what men earn. Surveys show that women in the crypto industry are generally more experienced, often in mid-level to senior positions, with most having more than five years of experience. Even when experience is controlled, women still earn more, perhaps because they have overcome more obstacles in the industry and demonstrated greater resilience and ability.
Additionally, other theories, such as men earning less than women or women being more risk-averse, do not fit the data. The crypto industry’s reversing wage gap could indicate that it offers better opportunities for women, signaling the potential for this emerging field to move toward greater gender equality.
▌Report: 54% of institutional investors and 64% of retail investors plan to increase digital asset allocation
The EY-Parthenon survey report shows that many institutional and retail investors hope to increase their allocation to digital assets and digital asset-related products.
The report shows that among the respondents, 94% of institutional investors and 83% of retail investors said they believe in the long-term development potential of digital assets. 54% of institutional investors and 64% of retail investors plan to increase their allocations.
Institutional investors mostly seek a multi-custody model to manage their digital assets, and in addition to custody, they also want connections to more liquidity providers, the ability to borrow and lend against cryptocurrencies, and prime brokerage services.
On the retail side, 72% of retail investors view digital assets as a core part of their overall wealth strategy, and they hope to enhance their current wealth and estate planning, tax and trust, and advisory services to cover cryptocurrencies and digital assets.
▌Ecoinometrics: In the long run, the continued increase in spot Bitcoin ETF holdings is a good sign
Cryptocurrency research firm Ecoinometrics posted on the X platform that since January, the holdings of spot Bitcoin ETFs have increased by nearly 300,000 Bitcoins. Although the pace of capturing Bitcoin has slowed significantly, the key point is that Bitcoin's growth continues even if the price of Bitcoin stagnates. In the long run, this continued accumulation is a good sign.
▌Riot Platforms: Q2 net loss of $84.4 million, Bitcoin production fell 52%
Bitcoin miner Riot Platforms reported a net loss of $84.4 million in the second quarter, compared to a net loss of $27.4 million in the same period last year. Despite the financial setback, the company still achieved revenue of $70 million in the second quarter, slightly lower than $76.7 million in the same period last year. This result reflects the challenging environment after the recent "halving" event of the Bitcoin network. Riot Platforms also reported a 52% drop in Bitcoin production, from 1,775 in the second quarter of 2023 to 844. However, despite the decline in production, Riot Platforms still achieved strong gross margins and revenue was flat with last year.
▌US mining company CleanSpark builds new mining facility in Wyoming
US mining company CleanSpark has become the second largest mining company by market value after acquiring Riot Platforms. CleanSpark is continuing its expansion, breaking ground on a new facility in Cheyenne, Wyoming, which is expected to be operational by the end of the year. The company is also acquiring a second mining farm in Wyoming and will expand into Tennessee through the acquisition of GRIID Infrastructure. CleanSpark has signed a 75MW power contract in Wyoming, of which 30MW will be used to run the S21 Immersion XP application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) in the planned facility. This will increase the company's hash rate by 2EH/s. CleanSpark is looking for additional power for the facility.
▌Santiment: Since August, traders have been generally optimistic about the top cryptocurrencies
Santiment, an on-chain and off-chain indicator intelligence platform, posted on the X platform that with the arrival of August, traders are generally optimistic about the top cryptocurrencies. It is expected that FOMO sentiment will weaken slightly before Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple and SOL rise. BNB is one of the few large cryptocurrencies with relatively weak market bullish sentiment.
▌Marathon's second-quarter revenue was $145.1 million, lower than expected
Bitcoin mining company Marathon Digital Holdings reported second-quarter revenue of $145.1 million, missing Wall Street expectations of $157.9 million, according to FactSet data. Marathon said in its earnings report that its second-quarter sales were hit by some operational challenges that hampered its ability to mine Bitcoin and the recent halving that put pressure on the mining industry.
Marathon Digital’s second-quarter adjusted EBITDA swung to a loss of $85.1 million from $35.8 million in the prior year, primarily due to fair value adjustments for its digital assets and a reduction in the number of BTC mined during the quarter. The miner currently holds more than 20,000 BTC on its balance sheet.
Marathon Digital (MARA) shares fell as much as 8% in after-hours trading Thursday, trading at around $18.14.
Important economic developments
▌The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September increases
According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 78%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 22%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points by November is 29.1%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 75 basis points is 57.1%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 100 basis points is 13.8%.
▌Economic Daily: The Fed is paving the way for rate cuts, but emerging economies still need to maintain rational expectations
There are various signs that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is approaching a time window for cyclical changes. Currently, the market is expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. In general, the conditions for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates are ripe, and a new round of easing cycle is about to begin. If the Federal Reserve chooses a relatively mild interest rate cut model in the future, the international financial market may not experience major ups and downs, but developing countries and emerging economies still need to maintain rational expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, prepare for the worst, and make contingency plans.
▌Bank of America: S&P 500 has limited upside in the short term
Bank of America's stock market contrarian indicator rose last month, reflecting the buoyant sentiment on Wall Street. Given that the indicator is still in "neutral" territory rather than a "buy" or "sell" threshold, it means that the extreme pessimism about stocks last year that fueled the rally is no longer there. In July, the so-called sell-side indicator (SSI) rose 30 basis points to 55.6%, Savita Subramanian and others said in a note to clients. The indicator tracks the average of strategists' recommended allocations to U.S. stocks for balanced allocation funds. The bank's head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy wrote that the indicator is at its highest level since early 2022, but still below average, "suggesting that optimism has not yet reached dangerous levels." Subramanian said the S&P 500 has limited upside in the short term, but there are still opportunities for good returns within the index.
▌The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher
The three major U.S. stock indexes opened and closed higher, with the Nasdaq up 2.64%, down 0.75% in July; the S&P 500 up 1.58%, up 1.13% in July; and the Dow up 0.24%, up 4.41% in July. Both the S&P 500 and the Dow rose for three consecutive months.
▌The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is 100%
According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 90.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 9.5%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by November is 21.7%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 71.1%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 75 basis points is 7.2%.
▌Powell: Rate cuts are getting closer, but we haven’t reached that point yet
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that interest rate cuts may be discussed at the September meeting; the Fed is getting closer to cutting interest rates; it is generally believed that the Fed is getting closer to cutting interest rates, but it has not reached that point yet; from now until the September FOMC monetary policy meeting, the Fed will receive a large amount of data.
Powell said that there was indeed an in-depth discussion on interest rate cuts at this meeting; the vast majority of people supported not adjusting interest rates at this meeting; the Fed would not make decisions based on a single factor, but would depend on the overall data performance; inflation, employment, risk balance, and overall data performance would help make decisions; the Fed only needed to see more good data. The data did not indicate that the US economy was weak or overheated; the Beige Book and the weakening of unofficial data were indeed taken seriously.
Powell said that several inflation data released recently have boosted confidence; the upside risk of inflation has been reduced. A 50 basis point rate cut is not something the Fed is currently considering; there is indeed a possibility of discussing a rate cut at this meeting; the vast majority of policymakers support keeping the rate cut in place at this meeting; the time for a rate cut is getting closer, possibly in September.
▌The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged this week is 95.9%
According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged this week is 95.9%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 4.1%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 86.8%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 12.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut is 0.4%.
▌Goldman Sachs' market value surpasses its long-term rival Morgan Stanley for the first time in four years
Goldman Sachs (GS.N) has surpassed its longtime Wall Street rival Morgan Stanley (MS.N) in market value for the first time since the pandemic began. Goldman shares rose 2.6% on Tuesday, pushing its market value to $168.9 billion, narrowly surpassing Morgan Stanley's $168.6 billion. It's a rapid rise for Goldman, which had a market value gap of more than $20 billion at the start of the year. "Given the potential for positive earnings per share revisions and a long-term re-rating, Goldman's stock is one of the best risk/reward plays in our universe," said Ebrahim Poonawala, an analyst at Bank of America Global Research. Goldman's shares have risen 31% this year to a record high, boosted by strong trading revenue and banking fees. Morgan Stanley's shares are set to rise just 11% through 2024, lagging its largest peer and the broader market as its wealth management business has been lackluster.
Disclaimer: As a blockchain information platform, Golden Finance publishes articles for information reference only and is not intended as actual investment advice. Please establish a correct investment philosophy and be sure to raise your risk awareness.
