Gold prices are rising, U.S. stocks are rising, why is Bitcoin falling instead of rising?

I haven't made many comments recently, mainly because I haven't seen any changes in the market trend. I know that after the recent repeated shocks, everyone's confidence is insufficient, so I hurried out to say a few words. Let me first say the conclusion. From a long-term perspective, I still believe that the current bull market is in the relay, and the real main uptrend is still to come. This round will not be as magnificent as the breakthrough of 20,000 US dollars in 2020, but with the continuous release of global liquidity and the compliance of traditional capital, Bitcoin's sustained upward trend is still just around the corner. According to the historical bull market cycle of carving a boat to seek a sword, this month should be the first month of strength!

Let's look at the big picture first. The chaos in the Middle East continues. Whether it is the successive killings of Hamas leaders, the geopolitical conflicts between Iran and Israel, or the war between Russia and Ukraine, there is no obvious sign of easing. As the global economy deteriorates further, such wars will only increase and it will be difficult to reduce them. When the cannon is fired, gold is worth a lot. Gold, which has the same safe-haven ability as Bitcoin, has once again strengthened to a new high, but Bitcoin did not follow this time!

As for the Federal Reserve, the probability of a rate cut in September is 100%. Once the rate cut cycle begins, it will be difficult to reverse. It is expected that this round of rate cuts will have to drop to at least 2.5-3% to have hope of entering a stable state. The current one-year US interest rate is still at 5.5%. It is normal for the interest rate spread of 300 basis points to drop in one or two years. Such a release of liquidity will be a carnival day for risky assets. After the Federal Reserve meeting ended yesterday, the Nasdaq rose by more than 2.4%, which is the best interpretation of the expectation of a rate cut. Just yesterday, Bitcoin fell in the opposite direction, with a drop of more than 5%, and did not continue to move in tandem with the US stock market.

I can't help but explore, what happened to Bitcoin in the past two days? Gold rose, US stocks rose, why did Bitcoin fall instead of rising? The final result of the exploration is that the fundamentals have not changed, and there is no need to fear a short-term correction! First of all, for capital, there is no doubt that they want to maximize their interests. When they see that the US stock carnival is coming, they will naturally fight for the yield of US stocks. When they see the war, they will definitely choose gold with the largest amount of funds, rather than choosing Bitcoin between risky assets and safe-haven assets to make money. Therefore, it is obvious that some capital has fled Bitcoin recently and turned to US stocks and gold. This can be intuitively seen from the recent ETF increment and the market value of USDC. Secondly, everyone should think about what supports Bitcoin's lack of downward momentum under the crazy selling pressure of Bitcoin by Mentougou + the US government + the German government + traditional capital fleeing (about 150,000 to 200,000 Bitcoins were sold before 60,000 to 70,000)?

After further research, I was shocked to find that 1.6 million bitcoins were traded between 65,000 and 67,000! The tokens of Mentougou and the government are not worth mentioning here. This means that there are still many mysterious forces in the market. There are more than 100 billion US dollars in transactions in this 3% range alone. This is not a selling pressure that ordinary retail investors can take. It is unknown who is buying, but this kind of game is very healthy for the market itself. After sufficient turnover, the upward height will be opened again. As the saying goes, the longer the horizontal, the higher the vertical. But there is a prerequisite, that is, it cannot fall below the high range of 50,000 that has lasted for several months.

Another piece of data, the lowest point of the last bear market, 15,500, only accumulated less than 500,000 bitcoins in turnover, so we can basically determine that the time and turnover of this round of high-level fluctuations are already sufficient, and it has the momentum to start upward, but the start time of this round of main rising wave and the fuse that ignites the rise are still unclear, so we might as well wait patiently with the mentality of continuing to watch the bull market as long as it does not break 5w. After all, 30% down and 100-200% up, the risk-reward ratio is also extremely suitable in the long run.

Let's talk about ETH. After this round of ETF was passed, a large amount of selling pressure appeared first. All of this selling pressure came from the ETHE that Grayscale was previously trapped in. Now that the swap has been opened, it is inevitable to sell it at the first time. As time goes by, Grayscale's selling pressure is getting smaller and smaller, and more and more ETFs are bought, gradually showing a net inflow state. For the future market, it is still a high probability event to follow Bitcoin to break through the historical high, which requires some opportunities and patience.

Small coins are still in a mess. The water in the reservoir has a characteristic, which is that it will gradually flow from the large pool to the small pool. Therefore, for small coins at the bottom of the risk market food chain, there must be sufficient market liquidity first → stock market and commodities → Bitcoin Ethereum → a group of small coins. After Bitcoin carries a large amount of capital inflow, it will spill over to the small coins at the lower end. Now that Bitcoin has not exploded, it will take some time to expect those air coins to rise. But then again, many valuable coins are not too expensive now, and they are in a golden period of gradual layout and diversified investment. The current altcoin index is 16, which is at a historical low, which means that the income from the layout of altcoins at this time will be higher than Bitcoin. I hope everyone will do their own research and don’t let down the opportunities given by the times. Remember that sentence, opportunities come from falling and risks come from rising.