The current market is deeply trapped in the vortex of macroeconomic game. The focus has shifted from the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and Sam's rule concerns in July to the speculation on the extent of the Fed's interest rate cut in September in August. Whether it is 25 basis points or 50 basis points has become a hot topic. Whether the interest rate cut is beneficial or not depends on its motivation - whether it is preventive or remedial. Although Sam's rule is not a solid signal of economic recession, it has triggered the market's trading recession expectations.

If August can witness a reversal of macroeconomic sentiment, the market may regain its upward trend. On the contrary, if recession trading continues to prevail, the situation will become more complicated. The key lies in September's non-agricultural data, especially the unemployment rate indicator, which will become the vane that determines the Fed's actions. If the unemployment rate rises, interest rate cuts are almost certain, and the market will focus on the game between interest rate cut expectations and recession trading. If the unemployment rate can fall back to below 4.2%, although the probability of interest rate cuts is still high, the recession haze may be slightly dissipated.

In short, the market trend in August was confusing, deeply affected by the interweaving of recession trading sentiment and potential positive factors. The performance of assets such as BTC, ETH and US stocks are all subject to this macro background. Unless the recession trading sentiment is fundamentally reversed or there is a strong positive force involved, the market's upward path may not be smooth. Investors need to pay close attention to economic data, especially the September non-farm report, to grasp the pulse of the market and make wise decisions. #比特币行情 #美国7月非农就业增长放缓 #美联储何时降息？ #美国政府转移BTC #超级央行周 $BTC $ETH