The US non-farm data in July was too bad. The previous value was 179,000, the expected value was 175,000, and the current value dropped sharply to 114,000. The unemployment rate was the highest in the past three years. US stocks, US stock futures, US bonds, including the currency circle, have fallen sharply, the market risk aversion has surged, and there are serious concerns about a hard landing of the US economy.
According to CME forecasts, there will be three interest rate cuts this year, but the Federal Reserve and Wall Street are currently dissatisfied with the delay in cutting interest rates, and bluntly stated that Powell has made a serious mistake. The current focus is not on whether there will be a rate cut in the future, but how much it will be cut. Huaqi Group predicts that it will be cut by 125 basis points this year.
It was previously believed that a rate cut was a positive, but if it was due to a recession, it would not necessarily be a positive. The news is not easy to digest in the short term, and there is great pressure from above. In the short term, the support of $60,000 is more critical.