According to a report from Matrixport, Bitcoin's outlook for the fourth quarter is optimistic. The report highlights that Bitcoin is currently experiencing one of its most challenging third quarters, characterized by weakening price momentum. This challenging trading environment may persist for several weeks.

Technically, Bitcoin's trading range is narrowing, indicating a potential breakout from its consolidation phase. The report suggests that a combination of anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, positive news in the fourth quarter, and potential influences from the upcoming U.S. presidential election could drive Bitcoin's breakout in the coming weeks.

The Federal Reserve has not adjusted interest rates recently. Chairman Powell noted that, should inflation trends continue as expected, a decision to cut interest rates might be made at the September meeting. Matrixport's inflation model predicts a gradual decline in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the next 12 months, with potential for continued interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each.

Currently, the U.S. interest rate stands at 5.25%, with an inflation rate of 3.0%, reflecting a restrictive monetary policy stance. The central bank may consider significant rate cuts over the next year. Matrixport's analysis suggests that Bitcoin will face a challenging two-month period, with typically sideways movement in August and weak performance in September.

Additionally, the report speculates that if former President Trump wins the election, his policies may positively impact the crypto asset market by reducing regulatory uncertainty and promoting innovation, including Bitcoin as a reserve asset. His attendance at the Nashville Bitcoin Conference has already been seen as a positive signal for the market.