Author: Nancy Lubale, CoinTelegraph; Translated by: Wuzhu, Golden Finance
Since the Bitcoin halving on April 20, the Bitcoin price has been consolidating in a wide range between $58,000 and $72,000. However, based on technical chart patterns and various indicators, the Bitcoin price could be on the verge of a breakout. The key question that remains is, when will Bitcoin break out of consolidation?
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin price expected to see a 'September breakout'
According to prominent cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital, Bitcoin could break out of consolidation in September.
In a July 30 post on X, the analyst wrote,
“Bitcoin still on track for a September breakout.”
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Rekt Capital
Rekt Capital explained that while Bitcoin failed to break out of the re-accumulation range in the 100 days following April’s halving, such a breakout was “always unlikely.”
Re-accumulation ranges are periods when buyers accumulate more BTC in anticipation of further price increases.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin appears to be trading in a descending parallel channel, which would suggest further upside momentum if the price can reclaim $65,000, analysts said.
“Holding $65,000 as support, Bitcoin will be able to revisit the top of this pattern over time. In the worst case scenario, Bitcoin will rise to the low $70,000s (blue circle). In the best case scenario, Bitcoin will completely break out of this structure.”
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Rekt Capital
Independent analyst Jelle said that based on technical chart patterns, the price of Bitcoin could reverse and break through the $100,000 mark in the coming months. This is the target of a multi-year falling wedge.
Source: Jelle
Bitcoin Consolidation May Be Coming to an End
As Bitcoin’s volatility indicators suggest, expectations for “explosive volatility” in BTC prices continue.
For popular trader and analyst Matthew Hyland, the tightening of Bollinger Band conditions on the weekly timeframe suggests a major breakout is imminent.
Bollinger Bands, a classic volatility and momentum indicator, are currently at their “tightest” width since August 2023, when BTC/USD last traded around $30,000.
Hyland also acknowledged that Bitcoin has been consolidating in a tight 25% range since March 13, and said he believes this long consolidation period is now over.
"It's starting to shrink now, so the time is coming. At the moment, it could come in a month."
Hyland also observed that the bands are repeating a similar pattern seen in July 2023, following a 20% surge in Bitcoin prices over the previous four months.
“So far, Bitcoin’s weekly Bollinger Bands have tightened only twice: in April 2016 and August 2023. We are seeing the same thing again now. Since then, Bitcoin has risen by about 20% between August and November 2023.”
Analysts also noted that the Bollinger Band Width (BBW) indicator is at the “third tightest level ever,” supporting a possible breakout from consolidation.
Data from TradingView shows that BBW has fallen to 20%, which was last seen in October 2023, before Bitcoin broke out of a multi-month trading range of $25,000 to $32,000 to top $40,000 by the end of 2023.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView
The current 20% gain comes after trading between $58,000 and $72,000 over four months, with occasional brief dips to $55,000.
“If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could hit a new all-time high of around $77,000 by November from its current price.”
Hyland explained that this could still be “a few weeks away,” adding that he believes Bitcoin is about to see an “explosion.”
