News:
1. The Fed has kept interest rates unchanged for the eighth consecutive meeting since September last year, in line with market expectations;
2. The Fed's policy statement reiterated that it would wait for confidence in curbing inflation before cutting interest rates. The FOMC is concerned about the "two-way risks" of the dual mission;
3. Powell: Cutting interest rates too late may weaken the economy too much, and cutting interest rates too early may reverse the improvement of inflation. The Fed is getting closer to cutting interest rates, but it has not reached that point yet;
4. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 90.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 9.5%;
5. Important data and events this week;
August 2, 20:30 US unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls in July
Technical aspects:
Big cake: Yesterday's slight rebound, back to the top of the daily 7-day moving average of 66,800, in the evening Powell's speech, affected by the early interest rate cut may reverse the improvement of inflation, the big cake started a momentum of falling more than 3,000 points in a short period of time. Technically, the 7-day moving average of the daily line turned downward and broke through the 14-day moving average to form a dead cross downward. At the same time, the K-line closed below the 61.8% retracement line of Fibonacci's strongest resistance at 64,800 points, and the short-term downward space opened up again. In terms of operation, the idea of high-level bearishness is maintained. The upper pressure during the day focuses on the 65,000-65,500 point range, and the lower support focuses on the low point of the callback during the previous rise in the 63,300-62,800 range.
Second Cake: The trend in the past three days has basically been staring at the 14-day moving average of the daily line all the way down. The K-line rebounded to the top of the 14-day moving average of the daily line and then quickly fell back, closing with a long upper shadow line. Yesterday, it closed below the 7-day moving average, and it was also below the 38.2% retracement line of Fibonacci at 3255 points. From the daily line, the second wave of short-term bearish market has been formed. In terms of operation, maintain the idea of high altitude, focus on the upper pressure of the day at 3240-3270, and focus on the lower support at 3140-3100.
Shanzhai:
MEW: Continue to be bearish, short-term target falls below 0.006 and then look at 0.005!
People: Five consecutive negatives, the overall downward trend is obvious, and the short-term lower target is 0.055!
The currency market fluctuates greatly, and it is necessary to be cautious when entering the market. Personal opinion, no suggestions, only for sharing
