Good afternoon, colleagues!

Last week was eventful, everyone was waiting for the speech of Trump and many other famous media personalities with their pretentious speeches at the Bitcoin 2024 conference

This week will be no less important for economic events and reports from the US, in particular on Wednesday the statement from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be in the spotlight.

The market is currently pricing in an 88% chance of a rate cut in September, and these expectations were boosted by last Friday's inflation data.

Nonfarm payrolls data will also be released this Friday, and economists expect the US economy to have added 177,000 jobs in July, down from 206,000 the month before.

Overall, I don’t have any hopes for the crypto market to rise after Powell’s speech, just as I didn’t have any hopes for Trump and his ilk’s speech at the recent conference. I think, as always, this week will be enjoyable for both bulls and bears. We can fly in both directions and more than once, as we did last busy week.

Therefore, when trading at local levels and intraday trends, you need to be extremely careful; there is a possibility of a large number of positions being liquidated, and for the most “desperate” – the entire deposit.

If you look at Bitcoin and Ether globally, for the 1M TF, both instruments look strong and bullish. Again, if for Ethereum there is an understanding of the immediate growth goals with a potential of at least 40% before the previous high, then for Bitcoin we are already at the high.

If we look at the cue ball on a logarithmic chart, we can draw an analogy with the growth in 2020-21. Now this is also the third approach to the level of $70K-71K + with trading below it. I think the breakthrough will not take long. The only question is how much will it grow?

If you stretch the Fibonacci (logarithmic mode) from the very bottom to the top of 2017, then this top would cross to the 162-262% Fib zone, just to the level where the price has approached for the third time and has been trading for several months. If the Fib is extended to the current top, the 162-262% zone will be at $190K-250K.

Personally, I do not believe in such growth of the cue ball, despite all the election promises of the US presidential candidates, but it is likely that before the elections they will try to push the cue ball upward, or at least they will keep it from spilling.

That's all I have!

I wish you to think critically and trade wisely.