Deep Trend TechFlow News, on July 29, according to Decrypt, the prediction market Polymarket showed significant growth as the US election season approaches. In July, Polymarket’s trading volume exceeded $324 million, and the number of active traders reached 38,000, a record high. In comparison, there were only 1,200 active traders and $6 million in bets in July 2023.
Nine of Polymarket’s top 10 markets by volume are related to the U.S. election, with more than $400 million in bets placed on who will win the U.S. presidential election, and the second-largest bet being $286 million on the Democratic nominee for 2024. From July 21 to 24, the site brought in more than $100 million in bets, with daily active traders peaking at 6,850 on July 22, according to Dune panel data.
Notably, Polymarket data shows Trump with a 60% chance of winning the presidential election, with Harris at 38%, which is in stark contrast to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week that showed Vice President Harris leading Trump 44% to 42%. The discrepancy highlights the difference in perceptions between bettors and traditional polls.