Judging from the currency prices in this cycle, I divide the currency prices into five levels: strong (a bull market appeared in 23 years), strong (down <80%), regression (down 80% to 95%), almost zero (down >95%) and zero (death or down >95% and almost no trading volume).
1. There are 3 strong projects, namely RPL, RNDR and OCEAN, which are LSD and AI narratives. These are mainly in the hot narratives at the beginning of the year.
2. There are 5 strong projects, namely MULTI (MULTI has almost returned to zero due to some force majeure, but it is still very strong when this analysis is completed), LYXE, QNT, MATIC and BNB, which are cross-chain bridge, fashion creativity, interoperability, expansion and exchange chain respectively. These projects either have star founders or have extremely strong capital.
3. There are 30 returned projects, so I won’t list them all here.
4. There are 18 projects that are almost reduced to zero.
5. Five projects were reset to zero, due to market black swans (LUNA, VGX), scandals (SAFEMOON), and others (SOUL, CEL).
In terms of track narrative, the narratives of these 100x coins are: Layer 1 expansion, decentralized cloud computing (overlapping AI and VR benefits), data (word) economy (transactions, ownership), cross-chain bridges, practical infrastructure (node services, oracles), payments, Meme, and IoT.
In terms of the projects themselves, most of them are low-market-cap projects, 36/61, and most of the projects that are not low-market-cap projects are mainstream narratives, such as L1, L2, cloud computing, DeFi, storage, GameFi, NFT, etc. Projects that can cross the cycle basically have strong capital endorsement, narrative and project fundamentals, none of which can be missing.
Small market capitalization (low point <10m) is generally a non-mainstream narrative, but retail investors buy the narrative. The logic of retail investors buying is mainly:
1. Make money (9): Wealth effect (X to Earn, X mining, etc.)
2. Valuable (11): Value that can be understood by novice retail investors (who rush in without thinking) or value that can be paid by retail investors who understand it but not quite (who will do some research)
A small number of small-cap projects are mainstream, but they have unique (magical) innovative directions, such as Layer 1 expansion, without the endorsement of large institutions, and gaining basic users through Fair Launch or mining (11)
Large market capitalization (low point > 10m) are basically decent projects. In addition to being endorsed by large funds, a considerable proportion of them are fair launched. The good effect of fair launch will make their low point market value high.
Among them, the mainstream narratives (11) are: L1/L2 expansion (Matic, BNB, LRC, SOL, ADA, KDA), decentralized storage (AR), metaverse (MANA, SAND), oracle (LINK), cross-chain (REN)
Retail investors’ buying logic (11):
1. Money-making effect: X to Earn (AXS), GPU mining (ＴＨＥＴＡ, HOT), DeFi (SNX, CHSB);
2. Valuable: digital ownership (ENJ), supply chain (VET), Internet of Things (IOTX, HNT);
3. MEME：DOGE,SHIB
4. Fan Economy (1): CHZ
5. Finally, there is a magical project: Quant
From the perspective of project establishment time, 31 (50.8%) of all projects were established before 2017, 20 of which were established in 2017, 30 (49.2%) projects were established during the 18-20 year bear market cycle, and only one (Safemoon) was established in the bull market (2021). So from this logic, projects born in the last bull market are still worth paying attention to, and projects that cross the cycle need to be carefully considered.
Projects established before the cycle are diverse, but mainly infrastructure, with a small number of metaverse/VR concepts, MEME, NFT and DeFi. Projects that can survive the cycle are all projects with strong consensus + high heat intersection. The consensus comes from Ethereum's roadmap (RPL), Ethereum's improved concepts (Matic, BNB) and high-heat interactive tracks such as AI and data (RNDR, OCEAN).
A large number of non-infrastructure projects have begun to emerge among the projects established during the bear market, such as payment, GameFi, CEX, MEME, etc. There are very few projects that can survive the cycle and remain strong, mainly those that have not been completely falsified but have a very strong background.
In addition, two MEME tokens (ShiB and SafeMoon) appeared consecutively on the eve of the bull market and during the bull market.
The above is an analysis of the last cycle's 100x coins from three aspects: track narrative, project itself, and founding time. There is a certain degree of subjective judgment on the division of tracks and retail investor logic. If you have different ideas, please feel free to discuss with me~
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Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice. Users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances and comply with the relevant laws and regulations of the country and region where they are located.
