Ethereum price drops more than 7.5%, ETHE outflow surges
Data from Coinglass
ETHE is Grayscale’s Ethereum trust ETF with a fee of 2.5%. The Ethereum spot ETF had an overall net outflow of $133 million on the second day of its listing. The culprit was Grayscale’s ETHE, which caused the sharp drop in Ethereum this week, with ETH falling to as low as around $3,100.
For most investors, the decision comes down to fees. Eight of the nine ETFs have management fees between 0.15% and 0.25%. Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH), a new fund created specifically for listing as an ETF, has a management fee of just 0.15%. These fees will be waived completely for the first six months after listing or until the fund reaches $2 billion in assets under management (AUM).
There are about 5 days until the next Federal Reserve interest rate meeting (2024.08.01)
https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168
Market technical and sentiment environment analysis
Sentiment Analysis Components
Technical indicators
Price trend
In the past week, BTC price increased by 2.83% and ETH price decreased by -7.33%.
The above picture is the price chart of BTC in the past week
The above picture is the price chart of ETH in the past week
The table shows the price change rate over the past week.
Price Volume Distribution Chart (Support and Resistance)
In the past week, BTC rose and then fell back into the concentrated trading area, while ETH fell and formed a new concentrated trading area at a low level.
The above picture shows the distribution of BTC’s concentrated trading areas in the past week.
The above picture shows the distribution of ETH's dense trading areas in the past week.
The table shows the weekly intensive trading range of BTC and ETH in the past week.
Volume and Open Interest
The past week saw the largest volume when BTC rose on July 19 and ETH fell on July 25; open interest rose for both BTC and ETH.
The top of the above picture shows the price trend of BTC, the middle is the trading volume, the bottom is the open interest, the light blue is the 1-day average, and the orange is the 7-day average. The color of the K line represents the current state, green means the price rise is supported by trading volume, red is closing positions, yellow is slowly accumulating positions, and black is crowded.
The top of the above picture shows the price trend of ETH, the middle is the trading volume, the bottom is the open interest, the light blue is the 1-day average, and the orange is the 7-day average. The color of the K-line represents the current state, green means the price rise is supported by trading volume, red is closing positions, yellow is slowly accumulating positions, and black is crowded.
Historical Volatility vs. Implied Volatility
Historical volatility was highest this past week when BTC was at 7.23 and ETH was at 7.25; implied volatility was rising for BTC and falling for ETH.
The yellow line is the historical volatility, the blue line is the implied volatility, and the red dot is its 7-day average
Event-driven
There were no major data releases in the past week.
Sentiment Indicators
Momentum Sentiment
In the past week, among Bitcoin/Gold/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/SSE 300, Bitcoin was the strongest, while Hang Seng Index performed the worst.
The above picture shows the trend of different assets in the past week.
Lending Rate_Lending Sentiment
Over the past week, the average annualized return on USD lending was 9.2%, and short-term interest rates fell to 6%.
The yellow line is the highest price of the USD interest rate, the blue line is 75% of the highest price, and the red line is the 7-day average of 75% of the highest price.
The table shows the average return of USD interest rate for different holding days in the past
Funding Rate_Contract Leverage Sentiment
In the past week, the average annualized return on BTC fees was 5.3%, and contract leverage sentiment rebounded from a low level.
The blue line is the funding rate of BTC on Binance, and the red line is its 7-day average
The table shows the average return of BTC for different holding days in the past
Market Correlation_Consensus Sentiment
The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week was around 0.75, and the consistency between different varieties fell sharply and then rebounded.
In the above figure, the blue line is the bitcoin price, and the green line is ['1000 floki', '1000 lunc', '1000 pepe', '1000 shib', '100 0x ec', '1inch', 'aave', 'ada', 'agix', 'algo', 'ankr', 'ant', 'ape', 'apt', 'arb', 'ar', 'astr', 'atom', 'audio', 'avax', 'axs', 'bal', 'band', 'bat', 'bch', 'bigtime', 'blur', 'bnb', 'btc', 'celo', 'cfx', 'chz', 'ckb', 'comp', 'crv', 'cvx', 'cyber', 'dash', 'doge', 'dot', 'dydx', 'egld', 'enj', 'ens', 'eos','etc', 'eth', 'fet', 'fil', 'flow', 'ftm', 'fxs', 'gala', 'gmt', 'gmx', 'grt', 'hbar', 'hot', 'icp', 'icx ', 'imx', 'inj', 'iost', 'iotx', 'jasmy', 'kava', 'klay', 'ksm', 'ldo', 'link', 'loom', 'lpt', 'lqty', 'lrc', 'ltc', 'luna 2', 'magic', 'mana', 'matic', 'meme', 'mina', 'mkr', 'near', 'neo', 'ocean', 'one', 'ont', 'op', 'pendle', 'qnt', 'qtum', 'rndr', 'rose', 'rune', 'rvn', 'sand', 'sei', 'sfp', 'skl', 's nx', 'sol', 'ssv', 'stg', 'storj', 'stx', 'sui', 'sushi', 'sxp', 'theta', 'tia', 'trx', 't', 'uma', 'uni', 'vet', 'waves', 'wld', 'woo', 'xem', 'xlm', 'xmr', 'xrp', 'xtz', 'yfi', 'zec', 'zen', 'zil', 'zrx'] overall correlation
Market Breadth_Overall Sentiment
Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 30% of the prices were above the 30-day moving average, 10% of the prices were above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 15% of the prices were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 20% of the prices were less than 10% from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that most of the coins in the overall market returned to a downward trend.
上图为['bnb', 'btc', 'sol', 'eth', '1000 floki', '1000 lunc', '1000 pepe', '1000 sats', '1000 shib', '100 0x ec', '1inch', 'aave', 'ada', 'agix', 'ai', 'algo', 'alt', 'ankr', 'ape', 'apt', 'arb', 'ar', 'astr', 'atom', 'avax', 'axs', 'bal', 'band', 'bat', 'bch', 'bigtime', 'blur', 'cake', 'celo', 'cfx', 'chz', 'ckb', 'comp', 'crv', 'cvx', 'cyber', 'dash', 'doge', 'dot', 'dydx', 'egld', 'enj', 'ens', 'eos','etc', 'fet', 'fil', 'flow', 'ftm', 'fxs', 'gala', 'gmt', 'gmx', 'grt', 'hbar', 'hot', 'icp', 'icx', 'idu', 'imx', 'inj', 'iost', 'iotx', 'jasmy', 'jto', 'jup', 'kava', 'klay', 'ksm', 'ldo', 'link', 'loom', 'lpt', 'lqty', 'lrc', 'ltc', 'luna 2', 'magic', 'mana', 'manta', 'mask', 'matic', 'meme', 'mina', 'mkr', 'near', 'neo', 'nfp', 'ocean', 'one', 'ont', 'op', 'ordi', 'pendle', 'pyth', 'qnt', 'qtum', 'rndr', 'robin', 'rose', 'rune', 'rvn', 'sand', 'sei', 'sfp', 'skl', 'snx', 'ssv', 'stg', 'storj', 'stx', 'sui', 'sushi', 'sxp', 'theta', 'tia', 'trx', 't', 'uma', 'uni', 'vet', 'waves', 'wif', 'wld', 'woo','xai', 'xem', 'xlm', 'xmr', 'xrp', 'xtz', 'yfi', 'zec', 'zen', 'zil', 'zrx' ] 30 日的各宽度指标占比
Summarize
In the past week, the market performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum was different. Bitcoin fluctuated widely in the range, with the highest trading volume on July 19, the highest open interest, the highest implied volatility, and the highest funding rate, indicating that the market sentiment has warmed up. Ethereum, on the other hand, fell after the shock, mainly affected by the outflow of ETHE funds, with the highest trading volume on July 25, the highest open interest, and the lowest implied volatility. The market breadth indicator shows that most cryptocurrencies have returned to a downward trend, indicating that the entire market has been dominated by declines in the past week.
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