In the fog of the bull market's duration, market opinions are divided. Some people foresee the end of the year or early next year, while I hold the hope that it will last until early 2026. This belief comes from the following three pillars:
Macro insights into the bull-bear cycle: Simply equating this year's market conditions with last year ignores the profound logic of the alternation of bulls and bears. The rising wave from October last year to now may only be the prelude to the bull market wave, not the prelude to the final chapter.
Bitcoin halving: a harbinger of a new era? The halving event has always been regarded as a major turning point in the cryptocurrency market. Although the market is worried that the price has been over-inflated before the halving, the starting point of this round of Bitcoin is not the same as the previous round, and its subsequent potential cannot be underestimated.
Subtle changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy: This year, the Federal Reserve may only make limited interest rate cuts, and each adjustment will be small, which will have limited stimulating effects on market capital flows. But looking forward to next year, if the interest rate cuts are more aggressive, capital will flood into the market like a tide, pushing the cryptocurrency market into a new era of prosperity, and Bitcoin prices are expected to usher in a new leap.
Faced with such a market situation, conservative investors may consider reducing their holdings moderately at the end of the year and retaining some positions to cope with possible further increases; while optimistic investors can continue to hold while maintaining a keen insight into market dynamics.
No matter how turbulent the market is, only by staying calm and patient and adhering to the concept of long-term investment can we move forward steadily in the alternation of bull and bear markets. $BTC