Bitcoin rebounds! Analysts reveal 4 data slogans: The bull market is still there
After rising to a high of US$68,000 on July 22, Bitcoin has corrected 6% in the past three days, and once fell below US$64,000 this morning (26th). Fortunately, it quickly bottomed out and rebounded. As of the time of writing, the price is quoted $66,800.
Although the recent plunge in U.S. technology stocks has affected the Bitcoin market, judging from macro indicators such as on-chain data and historical trends, the Bitcoin bull market does not seem to be over yet.
Lockridge Okoth, an analyst at currency circle foreign media "BeInCrypto", compiled 4 big data yesterday and pointed out that despite market concerns, the Bitcoin bull market is still feasible, and key indicators still support the upward trend.
MVRV remains above the 365-day moving average: Okoth pointed out that the current MVRV (total circulating value/realized market capitalization ratio) momentum indicator (orange) remains above the 365-day moving average (blue), indicating that Bitcoin’s upward trend still prevails.
Bitcoin spot ETF market demand: SoSoValue data shows that since its listing on January 11, the cumulative net inflow of the Bitcoin spot ETF has totaled US$17.5 billion. A comparison chart of ETF flows and new supply from miners shows that market demand for ETFs significantly exceeds issuance.
Bitcoin price performance since halving: Historical trends show that Bitcoin usually falls immediately after halving and then rises sharply within a year.
Bitcoin historical trend: Bitcoin has performed well in 8 of the past 11 years, only experiencing sharp retracements in 2014, 2018, and 2022 during the bear market. Looking at the Bitcoin full-year performance chart, the chances of Bitcoin underperforming this year appear to be low.
Image source: Coinbase
Bitcoin full-year performance chart
Pay attention to the two major time points in the future, when Bitcoin may skyrocket?
Okoth also noted that November is typically Bitcoin’s best month, and the fourth quarter also tends to be strong.
Data from CoinGlass shows that Bitcoin’s gains were strong between the second and fourth quarters, with the latter typically performing the best at 93.38%, suggesting that there is still hope for significant gains in October and November. November this year coincides with the US general election, and the market is currently paying close attention to whether Trump will be elected and his related political opinions.
The following is Bitcoin’s average quarterly return performance from 2013 to 2022:
First quarter: 5.91%
Second quarter: 32.83%
Third quarter: 4.21%
Fourth quarter: 93.38%
But Okoth also reminded that although the above data suggests that Bitcoin prices are expected to rise further, it may also face challenges. Investors must still pay close attention to regulatory developments, macroeconomic events, technological advances and changes in market sentiment, which will all affect its trends.
[Disclaimer] There are risks in the market, so investment needs to be cautious. Analyst opinions are for reference only. Users should refer to more diverse indicators to judge whether to invest, and consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are consistent with their specific circumstances. Invest accordingly and do so at your own risk.
