The Ethereum ETF tanked on the second day. According to the current rate of market crash, Grayscale ETHE will need to smash the 10 billion for 25 consecutive days. If it can hold up, then what we are waiting for is a new high for Ethereum. If it can’t hold up, then we can only hope that the ETF with staking function will arrive soon!

The reason for this decline is

First, the compensation of Mentougou is within the platform, which is not easy to check on the chain, which amplifies everyone's panic. Just last night, Mentougou transferred 10,216 BTC to Bitstamp Exchange. Bitstamp announced that it will pay compensation on the site on July 25;

Second, Harris's campaign status in recent days is too good, which makes Trump feel the pressure. There are now two presidential predictions on Polymarket. One of the predictions with $55.6 million bets shows that Harris's winning rate has reached 58%, while Trump's is only 38%. Although in the other prediction with $377 million bets, Trump's winning rate is far ahead at 62%, but in recent days, there have been continuous news that Harris's poll support rate has exceeded Trump. Harris has created the highest fundraising record in US campaign history of $240 million in just a few days, and there are more and more hype essays from various black groups, women groups, and youth groups that Harris's support rate is far better than Trump's. This has also made the currency market, which originally thought that Trump was a sure thing, feel uneasy. In addition, last night, Bitcoin Magazine CEO also published an article saying that he persuaded Harris to speak at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference but was rejected, and there were reports that Harris once said that Bitcoin is the money of criminals. These have made currency holders believe that if she takes office, she may continue Biden's previous policy of high-pressure regulation of encryption. This is also the reason why the encryption market has fallen for four consecutive days.

Another bad news is that the Ethereum ETF's positive capital inflow lasted only one day. Last night, it had a poor performance of a net outflow of 133 million US dollars. Among them, BlackRock and Bitwise, the main inflows of funds the night before, both withered last night, and the inflows dropped by an order of magnitude, only 17.4 million and 29.6 million respectively. On the other hand, the outflow of funds from Grayscale ETHE remained stable at a high level, which shows that the stubbornness of the selling pressure in the market is far greater than the buying pressure. This opening performance is similar to that of the Bitcoin ETF, but the buying pressure of the Bitcoin ETF is much stronger than that of ETH. On the first day, there was a net inflow of 655 million, while on the first day, there was a net inflow of 1.6 million. The net inflow of Ethereum ETF on the first day was only 100 million, and then it died. It is known that the selling pressure of Grayscale ETHE is 10 billion. According to the average daily outflow of 400 million in the previous two days, it will take 25 trading days, or 5 weeks. However, according to the rule that GBTC's market smashing basically stopped after it hit 50%, the large-scale market smashing of ETHE may be over in two and a half weeks. Therefore, the next three weeks will be a test of life and death for ETH. If it can withstand it, then I believe that ETH will most likely rush to ath in three weeks. If the price is smashed down, but there is a lot of buying, it means that the existing incomplete version of ETH ETF is not attractive enough to outside capital, so we can only look forward to the emergence of spot ETFs with pledge functions.

As for Bitcoin ETF, it warmed up a bit last night, and funds began to flow again, but the net inflow was not large, only 44.5 million. In fact, the data last night was similar to the night before, mainly because BITB and ARKB stopped dumping the market last night. The performance of several other institutions remained basically unchanged, which also means that the interest of funds outside the circle in Bitcoin has not changed much. Compared with last week's single-day inflow of 300-400 million US dollars, this week has been much calmer.

Then let's talk about the market. The market is basically in a state of general decline, especially ETH. Because the ETF performed poorly, everyone panicked instantly, causing ETH to fall sharply, directly from 3500 to around 3100, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate also fell below the 0.05 mark. It is no exaggeration to say that the decline last night was brought down by ETH. In addition, from the coingeko decline list, I looked down from the top, and the altcoins with the largest declines were $ldo $hnt $tia $core $arb $op $ens and ETH in this pledged and re-pledged state. It can be said that except for hnt, all of them are core projects of the ETH ecosystem. Therefore, Ethereum's pullback is the cause of this round of market decline; $sol performed much better than Ethereum last night, and basically did not fall much at the daily level. This is very similar to the market performance after the Bitcoin ETF was passed. At that time, Ethereum performed stronger, so when the ETF hype comes to sol, the sol/ETH exchange rate will rise rapidly, and the subsequent upward potential of sol is also greater than ETH.

In terms of sectors, there is really nothing to play in the current copycat market except#politifi#meme. Last night, $kama also experienced a sharp correction, with a drop of 27%. The current market value has returned to 27m. $trump $maga is not much better. The decline in the past 7 days has reached about 15%, and the market value is 272m and 53m respectively. In fact, from the current election perspective, although Trump has a greater chance of success, there are too many Trump memes and the certainty is not that strong. On the contrary, there are very few $kama memes. Basically, as long as Harris wins, $kama will have at least 10 times the room, and if Trump wins, $trump's upward space may not be that big. Of course, there is another most stable one for stability, which is $people. This is currently the only#politifiproject traded on Binance, with a market value of 380m. No matter who wins, $people should have room for speculation.