#以太坊ETF批准预期

Today, the overall crypto market experienced a small correction, with Bitcoin returning to $67,300 and Ethereum returning to $3,470.

Altcoins as a whole are also following the market in a correction, with a general decline of around 5%.

The news worth noting is:

1. On July 23, the US SEC officially approved the listing and trading of the Ethereum spot ETF.

Starting at 9:30 p.m. Beijing time tonight, we can trade Ethereum spot ETFs on the U.S. stock market. This is a milestone event in the crypto market.

Although the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF is good news, the market reaction was not as expected.

After the announcement, the price of Ethereum fell slightly. This may be because the market has already digested the news in advance.

Coupled with redemptions from early Ethereum investors, who will switch to other ETF products with lower fees, there may be a small wave of selling in the short term.

Analysts also said that there will be greater volatility after the Ethereum ETF spot trading is launched.

According to Deribit data, ETH options implied volatility has risen from 56% to 70% in the past week.

Analyst Valentin Fournier said that after the Ethereum ETF spot trading is launched, the ETH price may fall immediately and may face huge selling pressure at the beginning of this week, but will then gradually recover.

2. Justin Drake of the Ethereum Foundation said on the X platform that today is the tenth birthday of Ethereum.

On July 22, 2014, Ethereum officially launched its ICO. The fundraising price that year was 1 BTC for 200 ETH. There was no need for permission, no VC, and no lock-up.

Ten years later, 1 BTC can be exchanged for less than 20 ETH, which means that ETH has increased more than 100 times relative to BTC in the past decade.

3. On July 22, nine US Bitcoin ETFs increased their holdings of 5,518 bitcoins, worth approximately US$368 million.

The Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of US$1.24 billion last week, achieving net inflows for 11 consecutive trading days, including a net inflow of US$427 million on July 19.

This shows that there is a continuous net inflow of funds from American investors, which will provide certain support to the price of Bitcoin.

According to the latest report released by Bitfinex Alpha, Bitcoin hit a new 39-day high of $68,560, rebounding more than 29% from the local low on July 5, which shows strong bullish momentum.

A key event that previously affected the market was the German government liquidating more than 48,000 bitcoins. The crypto market absorbed this money, showing resilience and even rekindling demand.

In addition, ETF inflows also showed positive growth, with nearly US$1.2 billion flowing in last week, marking the first positive growth since early June.

One of the key reasons is that prices have risen above the average inflow cost basis for ETF holders, which is $58,200, which has injected new confidence into the market.

Cryptocurrency analyst Rachael Lucas said one of the main drivers of Bitcoin's rise was the massive inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Crypto analyst PlanB also posted on social media that he believes Bitcoin will soon soar because the bull market has just begun.

4. Analysts said: Strong expectations for Solana ETF products and increased trading activity will drive up SOL prices.

Solana’s SOL token has gained more than 18% over the past week, outperforming both bitcoin and ethereum, and was trading above $180 on Monday morning, a three-month high.

The SOL token has rallied due to increased trading activity on Solana-based applications over the past few weeks, boosting fundamentals.

Blockchain researcher Pat Doyle said: The Solana ecosystem is showing strong growth momentum, as evidenced by increased decentralized exchange activity, rising daily active users, and growing network fees.

These strong fundamentals, coupled with positive market sentiment, are driving SOL forward.

According to data from DefiLlama, the total locked value of tokens on Solana increased by more than 25% in a month, breaking through the $5.28 billion mark, reaching its highest level since April 2022.

The network has been receiving at least $1.5 million per day since June, and over the past week, on-chain transaction volume has exceeded $2 billion per day.

According to CryptoSlam data, NFT sales on the Solana chain reached nearly US$6 million in the past 24 hours, surpassing Ethereum to rank first.

Rennick Palley, founding partner of Stratos, also said that the relaxation of regulatory policies is increasing SOL’s appeal among professional investors.

He mentioned Trump's friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies in his pre-election speeches, saying: The recent rise is due to the improvement in overall market sentiment and the increasing possibility that cryptocurrency projects will not be deemed securities by the Trump administration.

Palley also said that SOL is expected to be the next token to launch an ETF, which would be extremely beneficial considering its relatively small size and strong price performance.

Among the top ten public chains, AVAX, Base, and Solana have the strongest growth. AVAX has increased by 19.56% in seven days and 44.52% in one month. Base chain has increased by 14% in seven days and Solana has increased by 13.68%. The short-term market hotspots are mainly concentrated on these three public chains.

It can be seen that due to the strong market expectations for SOL spot ETF and the increase in trading activities, the price of SOL may continue to rise. This ecological project is worth our focus.

5. Wells Fargo said: The Federal Reserve is expected to open the door to rate cuts this month

According to CME data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping its policy unchanged next week and cutting interest rates on September 18 is over 90%, and the probability of a total of three rate cuts this year is close to 50%. This is almost unchanged from before Biden withdrew from the campaign.

Wells Fargo said in a note that they expect the Federal Reserve to keep policy unchanged this month, opening the door to a rate cut.

They added that the Fed's track record suggests it would not shy away from cutting rates at its last meeting before an election.

6. It should be noted that on July 23, according to Arkham monitoring, the US government address transferred 58.742 BTC to the address starting with 34tXjQ 21 minutes ago, equivalent to approximately US$3.96 million.

7. Telegram founder Pavel Durov said that Telegram's monthly active users have reached 950 million. He wrote: This spring, the number was 900 million. Now it is expected to reach 1 billion.

Based on Telegram's user base, the Ton ecosystem will become a traffic portal linking Web2 to Web3. The projects in this ecosystem are worthy of our focused study.

8. Ondo tweeted that the yield stablecoin USDY has been launched on the Noble mainnet, and USDY can be used by Injective, Osmosis, Kujira and Pyth.

Overall, although the market has experienced a correction, this is normal and there is no need to panic.

In the previous live broadcast, I reminded everyone that after the Ethereum spot ETF is launched, the short-term positive will turn into negative. Coupled with the redemption trend of early users, Ethereum will be under certain selling pressure.

But the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF is a long-term positive, as it will attract more funds into the Ethereum ecosystem.

Currently, the Bitcoin spot ETF market is still experiencing positive inflows. The Federal Reserve is likely to start cutting interest rates in September.

After Biden dropped out of the race, Trump’s election is a high probability event. After Trump takes office, he may promote cryptocurrency-friendly policies.

Next, we can pay attention to the PMI data of US services and manufacturing released on Wednesday.

Thursday's release of U.S. second quarter GDP data and Friday's release of U.S. PCE inflation data, the Fed's favorite core inflation indicator.

There is also the Bitcoin 2024 conference from the 25th to the 27th, which will be attended by Trump and Musk. This may further boost market sentiment and expectations of rising prices.