Bitcoin (BTC) Could Gain 30%, Here's Why
Bitcoin is approaching a key bull market trendline from June last year, suggesting a major breakthrough.
Technically, this is a big step for Bitcoin to re-enter a price point that has usually led to large profits.
CryptoQuant, an on-chain analytics startup, says Bitcoin's current movement is trying to retest Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price, a key sentiment signal for market direction.
CryptoQuant contributor J. A. Maartunn said this STH realized price is relevant when examining Bitcoin's price discovery dynamic. This is the average cost basis of all Bitcoin held by short-term holders (less than 155 days).
The STH realized price has historically been a strong support level for bull market rebound price predictions. Latest moves suggest a reattainment of this critical milestone as the Bitcoin market tests this trendline again.
Maartunn said Bitcoin's reclaiming of the STH realized price is a “positive sign,” signaling short-term holders may be accumulating.
According to Maartuun, Bitcoin has recaptured the STH realized price thrice since early 2023, each time with at least 30% increases.
Since the asset has recaptured the STH realized price, a significant rally may be imminent.
Not everything is easy. Glassnode, another notable on-chain analytics startup, found various challenges for short-term holders.
According to Glassnode, 66% or more of this group's Bitcoin (BTC) assets have lost value in the previous month at current prices.
That's one of the worst short-term holder profitability declines ever, meaning top purchasers lost a lot.
More recently, Santiment noted that “Bitcoin’s amount of holders (any wallets with >0 coins) have been dropping aggressively.” Santiment said “traders still seem to believe the March ATH was as good as it’s going to get in 2024.”
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