2024.7.19 Macro Analysis

Good morning, brothers. Bitcoin has pulled back.

It is normal to take a few days off after rising from $56,000 to $66,000. It is impossible for Bitcoin to keep rising. Moreover, it is close to Saturday and Sunday, so there is usually a fluctuation or pullback.

After experiencing 9 consecutive days of net inflows from ETFs, there was a net outflow yesterday (BlackRock has not yet announced it), mainly because Grayscale was shipping.

From the on-chain data

(1) Stablecoins have not flowed out of exchanges on a large scale

(2) BTC in Binance has not flowed in on a large scale

So the risk level is not high

The general trend background is that the Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates, and the second half of the year is definitely bullish.

There are two positive factors next week: ETH ETF may be launched and Trump will attend the Bitcoin Conference to speak.

The current risk is mainly in Mentougou. Mentougou has 140,000 Bitcoins, which will be gradually distributed over time. Every transfer will bring a small panic to our circle. It is recommended to hold the tokens! After the good news is realized next week, those who have full positions can reduce their positions. Refer to the trend of Bitcoin ETF after it was approved on January 10. Ethereum may also be the same. Beware of double bottoms! #以太坊ETF批准预期 #BTC