There will be no substantive progress at this week's ECB meeting. The bank is likely to judge that the data confirms its medium-term outlook, given weaker-than-expected growth indicators and more robust inflation developments. The ECB will reiterate its reliance on data and its meeting-by-meeting approach to making decisions, as well as not committing in advance to a specific interest rate path. Lagarde will acknowledge sticky inflation in the services sector, but will conclude that inflation remains roughly on a downward trajectory. The ECB may cut rates again in September.

In the medium and long term, factors such as the implementation of the Fed's rate cuts, the weakening of the US economy, the over-issuance of global sovereign debt, and the increase in global political and economic systemic risks have all provided long-term positive support for prices in the international circle

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