In the early morning, the exchange rate was affected by the Mentougou incident and there was a correction, but the market did not fall as sharply as expected. Whether it was the main control or the support of good news, we finally saw an upward trend in a strong position, closing at around 65,000 points.
Back to the question of whether the "Mentougou" incident will trigger a sell-off again, it can be said with certainty that there will be an impact, but the impact is limited because the market has digested part of the sentiment in advance. The behavior of selling coins in Germany and Mentougou will indeed bring a certain amount of selling pressure. However, we cannot ignore another aspect: the Fed's interest rate cut in September and the arrival of Ethereum ETFs. According to CME Fed Watch data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 0, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 85.7%. This means that a rate cut in the second half of this year is almost a foregone conclusion. In addition, the Ethereum ETF is about to pass this month, and these good news will have a positive impact on the market.
The interest rate cut essentially means that the Federal Reserve will release more funds, and the passage of ETFs will also bring more capital inflows to the crypto market. Referring to the situation after the passage of Bitcoin ETFs at the beginning of this year, the market has risen sharply for several consecutive months. In comparison, the news from Mentougou seems insignificant. Therefore, whales like Justin Sun dare to continue to increase their positions because they are waiting for the real big positives in the market.
In the morning, we reminded to go long, and then the price ratio directly rose, and Buju also fell into the pocket. Recently, we have reminded to go long many times, and we have achieved good results. In the afternoon, the market fluctuated downward in a wide range. At 6:30 in the evening, the negative news came out, and the price ratio slightly smashed the market, which had a certain impact on the market. The current market support level is 62,500 points, the low point of yesterday's retracement, and the pressure level is 66,500 points. In terms of operation, we are cautious. In the short term, we will treat it as a volatile transition. Both long and short have opportunities. In the long term, we are still optimistic about the retracement and long.
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