Each wave of market adjustment is in two dimensions: time and space. Either the space is in place or the time is in place. In 23 years, the amplitude of each large-scale adjustment of the big cake is between 20% and 25%:
Silicon Valley Bank's thunderstorm in March 23 (25,000 to 19,000);
Mid-April to mid-June 23 (31,000 to 24,000), early July to August 23 (31,000 to 24,000, and two explorations in September),
Mid-January 24 (49,000 to 38,000)
Two waves from April to now this year (73,000 to 56,000, 71,000 to May 3)
This is the law of amplitude and the law of long time. Since the bear market in 22 years, each wave of adjustment has not exceeded two months, and the large-scale adjustment (double top pattern) has not been hyped for four months. After the time is in place, it is either a big rebound or a real reversal. You can take a closer look at the K-line.
We have been talking about the adjustment since 73,000 in mid-March, which is very similar to the second and third quarters of 2023. In mid-June, it was believed that the limit of Bitcoin would touch the low of 56,000 in early May. In early July, it actually fell below 56,000. The magnitude was not accurately judged (the actual decline of Bitcoin in this wave was 27%), but the judgment of time was OK. Sometimes the time dimension is also a very important rule.
As for the follow-up, we can't just look at the reversal, although the market sentiment is very good: driven by interest rate cuts and expectations of Trump's victory. But the high sentiment may also ebb in a short time. After the expectation of interest rate cuts is over, will the news be sold? I think it is possible. We have also talked about this year being more like 1995 and 2019. The economic situation was good and the Fed cut interest rates by negotiation, but the first interest rate cut at that time was the market that had a small-level adjustment and then went up again. And if we look at the second and third quarters of last year, after hitting the bottom in August, there was a second test in September.
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