Today's view: I still recommend avoiding chasing the gains from 8 to 10 in the morning, but waiting for the market to pull back before taking long positions. Before the 18th, we should try to avoid short positions. If the market sees a short surge on the 18th, it is recommended to exit long positions in time or raise the stop loss for protective operations. If there is no surge, we should continue to wait until the end signal of the unilateral market appears, which is usually marked by a short rise in the same direction.
In a rising unilateral market, once the market has a short surge and then fails to continue to set new highs, but starts to fall, this will be the time for longs to leave and shorts to enter. Similarly, in a falling unilateral market, the market usually experiences two or more failed highs and ends with a short-term plunge. The bottom area is often tested multiple times, and a plunge usually does not directly form a real bottom.
The formation of a trend requires time and momentum accumulation. Once formed, there will be no extreme reversal unless it is driven by major good news. Sudden events in the market (such as black swan events) may cause a short-term decline, but in most cases, this decline will be repaired. However, if the black swan event is persistent (such as the German government sell-off), then the market will react immediately. As far as the Mentougou transfer test is concerned, since the compensation process takes time, it is expected that the market will not move much within a week.
Regarding the time point of escaping the top, we currently expect it to be between the 18th and the 23rd, and to leave the market before the 23rd at the latest. There are long positions. Starting from the 18th, market changes may be more frequent, and we need to be particularly careful.
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