Kraken users have reportedly received an email from the exchange notifying them that the Mt. Gox reimbursement funds have been sent to Kraken and will be distributed within seven to 14 days.
Arkham Intelligence also flagged a transfer of 48,641 Bitcoin (BTC), valued at $3.1 billion, from a Mt. Gox trustee wallet on the morning of July 16; the analytics platform believes to be a Kraken-associated wallet.
Over the last several weeks, the Mt. Gox trustee has been shifting funds from cold wallets to hot wallets under its control. According to data from Arkham Intelligence, Mt. Gox currently holds 138,985 BTC valued at roughly $8.93 billion.
Experts debate the effects
The crypto community continues to debate the effects the Mt. Gox reimbursement will have on markets. Analyst Matthew Hyland believes that Bitcoin could potentially reach a low of $38,000, fueled by the fear, uncertainty, and doubt created by the selling pressure. Pseudonymous analyst Stockmoney Lizards also believed Bitcoin would crash again but forecasted a downside price floor of just $50,000.
Related: Mt. Gox shifts $9B in BTC, market braces for impact
Onchain sleuth ZackXBT provided a more optimistic view. According to the blockchain detective, the effect on markets should be short-term as only investors with the lowest conviction in Bitcoin will opt to sell their reimbursed funds.
Analyst Jacob King had a more dire forecast, warning that up to 99% of Mt. Gox’s unsecured creditors may dump BTC holdings onto the market. The analyst cited that certain creditors may choose to realize their meteoric gains, which in some cases is a whopping 8,500% for those who invested in Bitcoin more than a decade ago.
Institutional liquidity to cushion markets?
The liquidity provided by institutional Bitcoin investors could absorb the volatility created by the Mt. Gox selling pressure.
Weekly inflows into Bitcoin investment vehicles topped $1.35 billion, according to the July 15 CoinShares Fund Flows report, signifying one of the best weeks for Bitcoin investment inflows on record.
Bitcoin market sentiment measured by Santiment also shifted from "extreme fear" to "greed" on July 16, as markets rebounded from the German government offloading its Bitcoin holdings, and $300 million in daily capital was injected into Bitcoin investment vehicles.
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