He is the nemesis of short sellers!
Trump was shot, and the world is preparing for Trump's return to power.
A gunshot created a huge gap in BTC, and the short sellers will decide their life or death this week!
[Fundamentals]
1. A gunshot, a surge of nearly 5,000 points, BTC short seller nemesis is Trump.
At 18:11 on July 13, 2024, Eastern Daylight Time, former US President Trump was shot and injured at a campaign rally. Trump was shot in the upper right ear and is not in danger of life. The sudden shooting incident over the weekend has added fuel to the series of "Trump transactions" that have been stirring in the global market recently. The global market is preparing for Trump's return to power. Traders may flock to safe-haven assets and re-evaluate the transactions in the market that are most related to Trump's candidacy.
2. Trump clearly supports cryptocurrency in this election, and BTC is also regarded as one of the "Trump trades" in the industry. It also traded normally over the weekend, taking the lead in a wave of rapid upward movement. After the opening of the CME on Monday, a huge gap of more than 2,000 points (58,790-60,845) was formed, breaking through $60,000 in one fell swoop to challenge the near high of 63,851.
3. This week, various Fed officials still spoke every day, and the important events included:
Tuesday (July 16): Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a dialogue with Carlyle Group executives
Thursday (July 18): Federal Reserve released the Beige Book on economic conditions and the number of initial jobless claims in the United States as of July 13
[Technical side]
1. Whether the gap can be filled, this week will be the most important week. Judging from the gap filling situation formed by the CME in recent years, the probability of filling the gap within a week is the highest, close to 50%. If the gap is not filled for more than three weeks, it may take more than 1 year to fill it.
2. The gap filling rate in the past three years has exceeded 80%. Currently, there have been only two times when the gap has not been filled, namely July 27, 2020 and March 13, 2023. If the gap is not filled for more than three weeks (after August 4), the gap may become a long-term bottom.
[Market Tone and Suggestions]
1. Medium and long term: bullish. Short term: possible correction, and the possibility of completely filling the gap is not high.
2. Suggestion: Enter the market in batches when the correction is made. The first entry range is 61600~61000, and the second range is 60200~59600.
