-【Replay】-

slightly.

-【Today's Market Analysis】-

Old Wine Trading Diary: Daily Interpretation 7.15

① Intraday ultra-short-term pressure: 63400-63900

I am afraid that it will be difficult to break through this position in one fell swoop today and tomorrow. On the contrary, it is more likely to fall back when encountering resistance, causing a retracement at the 4-6 hour level. Therefore, I will choose this area and be ready to make a short order on the right side at any time.

② Intraday ultra-short-term support: 61400-61800

If the price falls below 62,300, it will probably come to this area. It is probably possible to buy more. At the very least, there should be a rebound. After all, the strong support further down is between 60,400 and 60,600.

Summary: Arrange short orders at key pressure points. Try not to chase shorts in the middle. Buy more or cover more when the price drops.

-【Digital Currency News】-

Bitcoin and Ethereum lead crypto inflows at $17.8 billion!

So far this year, inflows into digital asset investment products have hit a new record of more than $17.8 billion, significantly exceeding the previous record of $10.6 billion set in 2021. This suggests that the cryptocurrency market may be starting to recover. Regionally, the United States led the week with $1.3 billion, but other countries also showed positive sentiment, most notably Switzerland (which set a record for inflows this year), Hong Kong, and Canada, with $58 million, $55 million, and $24 million, respectively.

Institutional Crypto Asset Flows

Meanwhile, Bitcoin saw its fifth-highest weekly inflow ever at $1.35 billion. The massive inflow helped the world’s first cryptocurrency rebound above the $60,000 mark. Meanwhile, short-selling products related to Bitcoin saw their largest weekly outflow since April 2024, totaling more than $8.6 million.

Weekly Crypto Asset Flows

Last week, weak prices due to the German government's sale of Bitcoin and improved market sentiment due to lower-than-expected U.S. consumer price index prompted investors to increase their holdings of Bitcoin.

Ethereum, meanwhile, saw the second-largest inflow after Bitcoin, with inflows totaling more than $72.1 million over the past week. The growing inflows may be due to anticipation for the launch of the first U.S. Ethereum spot exchange-traded fund (ETF), which could begin trading in the coming weeks.

U.S. spot Ethereum ETF issuers are expected to receive final comments from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) early this week, according to a person familiar with the matter.

This week, several issuers, including VanEck and 21Shares, submitted amended registration applications seeking final approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to begin listing spot Ethereum ETFs. Eight spot issuers are awaiting approval from U.S. regulators.

Finally, with mixed inflation data last week, the market will be watching Powell's words closely to see how U.S. financial policy may change in the future. The next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be held at the end of this month, and the result of a rate cut has not yet been determined.

The September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting remains a critical moment for policy to shift to a firm "accommodative" stance.

Federal Reserve September FOMC meeting target rate probability (CME)

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed a 94.3% chance of a rate cut in some form in September as of July 15. That compares with a 4.7% chance this month.

Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at wealth management firm Creative Planning, observed that the market currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates 2-3 times before the end of this year and 4 more times in 2025.

What do you think?

Personal point of view, only for reference