Amid the general decline, many altcoins experienced a bloodbath, losing from 30% to 70%. This drop caused many “analysts” to doubt the possibility of an alt-season. Don't worry, there will be an altseason:
🧐 Understanding Halving Dynamics
The Bitcoin cycle may predict the timing of the next altcoin season. The basic idea is that after each Bitcoin halving, which occurs approximately every four years, there is an opportunity for altcoins to rise. This pattern has remained stable throughout the history of the industry.
🚀 Impact of halving on altcoins
After the halving, Bitcoin takes one to one and a half years to reach a new high, usually around 500 days. And this is the time when altcoins should show explosive growth. For example, after the third Bitcoin halving on November 9, 2021, Bitcoin reached its ATH, and shortly after, Ethereum updated its maximum to $4,800. This happened the next day.
💰 How does money flow work?
The key to understanding the market lies in the pattern of money flow. Initially, investors flock to Bitcoin and after it overheats, they pour capital into still-holding altcoins. This influx of money into altcoins results in a significant increase in their value. Everything seems clear here, nothing tricky. Investors are leaving the overheated cue ball for underheated alts.
🧸 Current market indicators: bearish or bullish?
Bitcoin dominance is over 54%, it's still Bitcoin season. This week there was a slight decrease from 55.04% to 54.68%. This is the minimum fluctuation. According to historical data and market trends, a boom in alts can be expected in the second half of 2025.
🦊What am I talking about?
During the bull run of late 2017 and early 2018, Bitcoin's dominance fell from 86% to 37%.
During the bull run at the end of 2021, Bitcoin's dominance fell from 70% to 40%.
With each new cycle, the gap will become less pronounced. I think that for this cycle, active preparation for the alt season should begin after the cue ball dominance exceeds 60%.