With the election approaching, any unexpected behavior by the Fed will be interpreted as a tendency to take sides in the political camp, which will have a relatively large impact on the Fed.
I personally believe that the Federal Reserve will most likely postpone the interest rate cut until October to December after the end of the US presidential election. This is the underlying logic of the financial war game between China and the United States.
Therefore, BTC’s next big bull run may be delayed until 2025
When the Fed cuts interest rates for the first time, banks will sell assets such as stocks and bonds, U.S. stocks will fall sharply, and Bitcoin will likely be dragged down as well.
Judging from the weekly and daily levels of Bitcoin, the upward trend has been destroyed and it will take a long time to repair.
In addition, the dealer will not let everyone enter the bull market easily.
Therefore, Bitcoin is expected to start rising in early September, possibly reaching its previous high, and then fluctuate and fall again to form a bottom.
After the first interest rate cut, Bitcoin will complete its final bottoming out and will not start a bull market until 2025.
Many people think that the United States will not experience a recession because the financial industry is currently the dominant industry in the United States and its GDP is mainly service-oriented, with financial and government services accounting for a relatively high proportion of this service industry.
The reason why everyone thinks that the US economy will not decline is because they do not rely on industry, but this is also a disadvantage. If a financial or economic crisis occurs, the US itself will have the highest risk factor. They are now a bit like high-end players playing high-end games, which is really awesome, but the risk is too high.
If the CPI in the next two months does not continue to maintain such a cooling trend, but remains above 3%, then this will undoubtedly hit the funds that have already entered the market based on the September interest rate cut, leading to a further correction in the market;
So just continue to wait for the data, and I personally do not recommend using the "election year" as a basis for going long. Although this is almost a specific rule, looking back at history, rules are sometimes meant to be broken, so we should still make decisions based on objective facts.
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