At 8:30 tonight, the market will welcome the release of the crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June. This data directly affects the nerves of global investors, especially the Federal Reserve's close attention to inflation. Recently, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made relatively dovish remarks, suggesting that even if inflation has not fully fallen back to the target level of 2%, the possibility of interest rate cuts will not be ruled out. This statement has triggered widespread discussion and speculation in the market - to what extent inflation needs to fall to trigger interest rate cuts?

The core focus is whether the CPI data for June, which will be announced soon, can continue the downward trend of the previous few months. Looking back at May, CPI was flat month-on-month, indicating that inflationary pressure has eased. Although the market expects a slight rebound to 0.1% month-on-month in June, the more critical year-on-year data is expected to fall from 3.3% last month to 3.1%, while the core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, is expected to remain unchanged at 3.4%.

Lao Xu is cautiously optimistic about this, and his analysis is based on the overall cooling trend of the current US economy: from the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) to the job market, from the real estate market to consumer spending, and then to energy prices, all show signs of slowing down to varying degrees. More importantly, the growth of energy and rental costs, which have a larger weight in the CPI composition, has slowed down significantly, and the prices of medical services and used cars are also on a downward trend. These factors together constitute a solid foundation for the CPI to fall further.

Therefore, under the current macroeconomic background, Lao Xu believes that the June CPI data is likely to continue to decline and it is difficult to rebound significantly. As for whether this expectation can be verified by the data, let us look forward to the moment of disclosure at 8:30 tonight. The market will pay close attention to this key data to assess the future monetary policy direction of the Federal Reserve and the outlook for the global economy. #比特币行情 #以太坊ETF通过 #美国CPI数据即将公布 #美联储何时降息？ #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ $BTC $ETH