The US CPI data for June will be released at 20:30 tonight. For most of the friends, it is enough to look at the annual rate of CPI. The previous value was 3.3%, the market expected 3.1%, and the Cleveland Fed expected 3.12%. It seems that the market is still optimistic about the decline in inflation.
However, the current expectations for core inflation are not very good. The previous value was 3.4%, the market expected 3.4%, and the Cleveland Fed expected 3.52%, indicating that except for food and energy, the US inflation is still in a state of repetition, and even the possibility of rising is not ruled out.
This means that it is still difficult to cut interest rates through inflation. A better way is to force the Federal Reserve to choose between inflation and economic recession through the increase in unemployment rate. The increase in unemployment rate is accompanied by the risk of economic recession.
So today we still have to look at the data comprehensively. If both CPI and core CPI can be lower than the previous value, it is definitely good news, but if only CPI falls and core CPI rises, it does not rule out the possibility of market repetition. If both rise, there is no need to say more.