Macro Focus on July 11:

Today, our focus is mainly on CPI data, which will directly affect the market's expectations of whether there will be a rate cut in September. Powell's multiple statements echo market forecasts, believing that a rate cut in September is a reasonable choice in the context of the economy and politics (especially the US election). However, the premise of a rate cut is a decline in inflation data, and at present, CPI data has become the key. If the CPI meets expectations, the July FOMC meeting may discuss in depth the specific path and method of rate cuts, paving the way for a rate cut in September.

Although rate cuts are good news for the market in the long run, investors should not be blindly optimistic. Both historical data and objective analysis show that the market may fluctuate before and after the rate cut due to factors such as economic recession, diversion of US debt funds, and "subjective liquidity traps", including the crypto market.

US stocks:

The current hot trend of US stocks deviates from the actual situation of the US economy, and its impact on the crypto market cannot be ignored. If the September rate cut is successful, there may be a wave of rising prices in the short term. But the real market high may have to wait until February next year. After 2-3 interest rate cuts, the money supply will be sufficient, and the market may usher in a real spring. It is expected that the crypto market value will reach the level of 100,000 US dollars by then.

Market Comments

1.BTC: The current price fluctuates around 5.7w, which is a key indicator of the current market. If the CPI data is stable (not high), BTC is expected to continue to hit 61,500. But around 6w, there may be fierce competition in the market.

2. ETH: The current bottom position of 3,000 is not stable, and it has risen and fallen many times. In addition, the voice of ETF speculation has weakened, and the negative impact on Bitcoin ETF cannot be ignored.

3. SOL: As one of the fastest-rebounding public chains, SOL seems to lack the momentum for further rise in the 140-150 range, and the positive degree of ETF news is also slightly insufficient.

4. Shanzhai: Shanzhai coins have rebounded by about 20% recently, but you need to be cautious and consider exiting at the right time.