Author: Cyber Street Liuzi (formerly Cyber Melon Farmer)
Introduction: The title comes from a conversation with a colleague at work. At that time, my colleague said to me with shining eyes, "You said that the price of pancakes has reached 70,000 in the blink of an eye, so how far can 100,000 be?" I said that at least it will take Trump to take office in November, and the scenery of 100,000 is still far away.
After a weekend off, it feels like I haven't written anything in a long time. I feel like I won't be able to continue if I don't produce something.
For some reasons, you may have seen my articles in mainland media, so most of my articles do not talk about projects. I just talk about the macro market from a personal perspective and share some of my ignorant opinions with you.
The current time is July 9, 2024. At this time, I am talking about the price of 70,000 Bitcoin. Do you think I am crazy? I am crazy, of course. If I am not crazy, why would you click on my article?
BTC price, picture from Bijie.com
What is the core value of BTC?
Whether it goes up or down, let me first ask everyone here, what is the core value of BTC? What is supporting its rise and fall?
l The oldest digital currency in the crypto market?
l The total amount is constant at 21 million, and no one is in control?
l What is the technical security brought by decentralization?
l Global market support?
l Global consensus?
If we were to vote, the most important topic would probably be global consensus.
So, where does BTC's global consensus come from?
Compared with ETH, both sides have decentralized technology support. Perhaps, the only advantage is that BTC does not seem to be controlled by any force, anyone can participate, and ETH has the V God team behind it. In terms of ecological applications, ETH supports smart contracts and naturally has a richer application ecology than BTC, such as Uni, OpenSea and other leading applications. In terms of the number of users, according to statistics in 2023, the average daily active addresses of BTC are about 1.14 million, accounting for 12.82% of the total number of valid addresses (balance greater than 0.01); the average daily active addresses of ETH are about 580,000, accounting for 4.38% of the total number of valid addresses (balance greater than 0.01); the SOL chain, known as the ETH killer, has not released data, but its daily transaction volume and amount have exceeded ETH.
So, comparing the three, why is ETH not the top cryptocurrencies in terms of ecology? Why is SOL not the top cryptocurrencies in terms of users? To be honest, if it doesn’t work, at least Trump in MEME has someone behind him who knows the world.
In a group, the person who has the best overall quality or hard power but has the best popularity usually has the right to speak at a higher dimension, so everyone will obey him.
So what is that higher dimension?
Trump Supports Cryptocurrency, So What?
Since BTC hit the peak of 73,777 in March, it has hit the 70,000 mark on March 31, April 10, May 20, and June 5. As BTC has risen strongly, the market predicts that a bull market will arrive in 2023. There are constant rumors about this. Here is a list of the most valuable BTC good news in 2024:
BTC production halved
l BTC and ETH spot ETFs have been opened one after another, and more funds have poured into the market
l The crypto market is accepted by mainstream finance, and regulation is gradually involved
l The US cuts interest rates, and the market has more money
l In the US presidential election, crypto President Trump has a high chance of winning and is likely to be elected;
Everyone, sit down and let’s talk about it one by one.
First of all, the BTC production is halved. It is already July now. So what? Has it increased?
BTC and ETH spot ETFs have been opened one after another, and more funds have poured into the market.
To be honest, from the perspective of a media person, the author writes this way because it is required by the job and in line with the hot topics, otherwise how can he make money. If readers really think this way, then you are really being fooled by the author.
Let’s not talk about the traditional financial market, let’s just talk about the crypto market. How many people can understand the ups and downs? If you can’t understand it, how can outsiders invest? In other words, the same institutions and people who used to play ETFs are still the same institutions and people now. Every profession has its own expertise. If crypto people don’t understand crypto, it’s just like A-share people don’t understand A-shares.
The opening of BTC and ETH spot ETFs will only divert funds from the traditional financial market. As high-risk investment products, they will only enter the market when there is money to be made and flee when there is no money to be made, leaving only a small amount of funds that can be afforded as a price to welcome the arrival of the next bull market.
The next three points, regulatory openness, US interest rate cuts, and presidential election, can actually be understood from one dimension.
Because of the need for capital, the opening of BTC ETFs requires endorsement. With this precedent, the top sectors of the crypto market should be equally benefited - it's just a matter of time and interests. Otherwise, how can a product that is not legally recognized or has regulatory enforcement power enter the mainstream financial market?
With regulation and opening up, where will the money come from? The interest rate has been cut.
It seems that the interest rate has been lowered, the dollar has become more valuable, and the people have money. After all, the market is a pyramid model. The money in the hands of the people will one day end up in the hands of the top financial tycoons in the United States - otherwise where would they get the spare money to invest?
From another perspective, the US dollar interest rate cut will cause investors to transfer their bank deposits to the US bond market, increasing the demand for US bonds to provide blood supply for the United States. Pushing up the price of US bonds will lead to a decline in yields. But this also leads to another question: how to repay 3.4 billion US bonds?
This is relevant to the presidential campaign.
If you like to read international news, you probably know that many countries have suffered greatly under the tide of the US dollar. On this basis, the world economic form has gradually evolved from a US dollar economy after the end of World War II to a new pattern dominated by the euro, the renminbi and the US dollar.
However, what is worse is that in the past, oil from the Middle East could only be purchased and paid for with US dollars. But since May this year, Saudi Arabia in the Middle East has accepted the proposal to use RMB as the settlement currency for oil trade. This pattern has greatly impacted the hegemony of the US dollar.
In addition, the US-led Russia-Ukraine war and the Middle East war have both been mired in a quagmire and have been delayed again and again.
When the cannon is fired, it brings in a fortune of gold.
The dollar's dominance is no longer there, repayment of $3.4 billion in U.S. debt has become a problem, war costs, etc.
Regardless of whether Trump is the last person to take office, the introduction of the FIT21 cryptocurrency regulation bill has laid the foundation for the cryptocurrency to gradually enter the mainstream financial track in the future. However, how much money can the United States still put forward to cultivate the crypto market?
Bullish or bearish, what is the supporting logic behind the price?
First of all, Street Flirt is a conspiracy theorist.
Why is USDT the most stable cryptocurrency and not RMBT? Who will be the ultimate beneficiary of USDT?
BTC is uncontrolled? Is it really uncontrolled? Various fund managers have marked long BTC and short USD. This means that the same BTC can absorb more USD, but the final settlement method of the BTC system is USD. Natural de-bubble.
Considering the market situation, they bought at 73,000, and then kept selling them at low prices. So where did the US dollars in the middle go?
Secondly, back to the topic, whether BTC is bullish or bearish, what is the logic behind the price?
The answer in the street urchin’s mind is the US dollar.
The so-called global consensus is nothing more than the manipulation of major powers.
As a part of state-owned financial instruments, BTC does not need to have too many ecosystems or too many users. It only needs to have no middlemen to make a profit from the price difference and ensure that the biggest beneficiaries in this profit chain are the system itself and the people who operate the system.
That’s why BTC is firmly in the top spot in crypto. After all, there’s already a military-industrial money-making system, so there’s no need to create another crypto-money-making system. Right?
Think about 100,000 again, to be honest. Whether it can return to 70,000 and stay at 70,000 depends on whether old man Trump can give a strong performance in November. According to market rumors, if old man Trump comes to power, he is very likely to use administrative orders to regulate foreign trade, so that the global dollar will flow back to guarantee the dollar market.
If Trump's administration does not pay as much attention to the crypto market as expected, it is very likely that the US presidential election in November will be just a small fluctuation in the crypto market.
Talking about 100,000, it’s so far away, like a world away.
In the middle is the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine war, oil, and US debt.
Oh, shit, Trump is 78 years old.
