The market is divided into four stages:
1/ General bear season: from the peak of the bull market to the bottom of the bear market, the feature is that the entire market falls.
2/ Washing season: from the bottom of the bear market to the start of the next bull market (this round starts from October 12, 2023), the feature is mainly oscillation, with a slight increase.
3/ BTC/ETH season: from the starting point of the bull market to the lowest point of the proportion of altcoins, the feature is a general increase, but BTC/ETH has increased a lot, and the market value share of altcoins has dropped to the lowest.
4/Altcoin season: from the low point of the proportion of altcoins to the peak of the bull market, the feature is a general increase, altcoins have risen the most, ETH has also risen very well, and BTC has only risen by 100%.
The above are all estimated based on market value, so there may be a situation where the market value of altcoins increases but the price does not.
Each stage ranges from 9 to 15 months, which is still relatively consistent at present.
The market is currently in the middle of the "BTC/ETH season". This round of wash season is relatively short, so it is estimated that the BTC/ETH season will be longer. From a time perspective, the last round of "BTC/ETH" ended 8 months after the halving, and now it is 3 months after the halving, a difference of about 5 months.
From the perspective of the increase target, the total increase in the last round in this season was 480%, and the increase in this round of BTC/ETH season was only 100%, which is far from enough.