$BTC This Monday, the daily K-line of the big cake completed the second bottoming out at 54260 and gradually rebounded and rose. At noon today, it stood on the pressure of 58500 and cleared some short positions, but the overall downward trend at the daily K-line level has not been completely improved.

In the overall trend of the big cake for one month, the daily K-line is still trading below the downward trend pressure line since the beginning of June, and the upper pressure 60,000-60500 range overlaps with the 20-day moving average. 10. The direction of the 20-day moving average is still parallel downward, and it will take time for the 5, 10, and 20-day moving averages to turn upward from the overall short-term arrangement.

The daily K-line has completed the second bottoming out, and the worst time for the big cake has passed. The market is forming a short-term bottom. If the big cake is blocked in the 60000-60500 range in the next one or two days/a few days, it should be around 56000 to bottom out again. If there is an opportunity, 56000 or below is the last comparative advantage entry opportunity.

Last night, Fed Chairman Powell did not reveal the path of interest rate cuts in his semi-annual monetary policy testimony, but the market still has high expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates in September. The June CPI will be released tomorrow night, and Bitcoin will still seek expectations and exact timing of interest rate cuts in the CPI data. If the US dollar does not cut interest rates in September, it will cut in November. If it does not cut this year, it will cut next year, because a US dollar interest rate cut is a must. The later the time, the more favorable it is for Bitcoin. Bitcoin can rise above 73,000 in the tightening cycle, so why not go above 100,000 in the loosening and interest rate cut cycle?

In addition, the scale of Bitcoin ETF is already very large. Although Bitcoin has continued to fall in the past month, the outflow of funds is very limited. The cost of a number of Bitcoin ETFs such as BlackRock is above 50,000. How much can Bitcoin fall, and are there still short sellers who are not afraid of death? If BlackRock and other ETFs are bought to the current scale, they will be sorry if they do not rise to more than 100,000 in the future market.

In general, the darkest time of the pancake has passed, and now we can see the dawn. The weather is cloudy with short-term rain, but the sky will be clear someday, and there is no rush.