Apple's stock price hit a record high, rising more than 0.6% to $227.82 on Monday, with a total market value of nearly $3.5 trillion, surpassing Microsoft to return to the top of the U.S. stock market. On July 9, Powell said in congressional testimony and hearings: There is already a good inflation data, and more good data is needed; the timing of the interest rate cut will depend on the data and the situation of the labor market; interest rates will be adjusted cautiously. The CPI data released on Thursday may largely affect whether the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates in September.

Back to the topic:

Xu Zhengyu, director of the Hong Kong Treasury Bureau, said that the market is concerned about the recent withdrawal of many large international virtual asset platforms from applying for licenses in Hong Kong, and the trading volume of virtual asset spot ETFs listed in Hong Kong is also lower than that in the US market. Regarding the future development blueprint of Web3 in Hong Kong, the current discussion of Web3 is overly focused on the financial field, while the technological elements behind it are more important, including the efficiency of transactions and settlements through disintermediation. Bitstamp said in a statement: According to the agreement with the MtGox trustee, Bitstamp has 60 days to distribute tokens and will work hard to ensure that these investors are compensated as soon as possible. On July 9, the Cryptocurrency Panic and Greed Index was 27 (yesterday was 28), and market panic has intensified. CoinShares weekly report shows that the total inflow of funds from digital asset investment products last week reached US$441 million. The recent price weakness caused by Mt Gox and the selling pressure of De may be seen as a buying opportunity. On July 9, De transferred out 16,039 BTC and transferred back 3,673 BTC. He currently holds 27,461 BTC and has sold more than half of his assets. Steven Zheng, head of research at The Block, said that the exchange is likely to return BTC because it cannot sell BTC within the target price range. Matrixport analysis shows that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to approve the ETH ETF this week. On May 20, the SEC asked the ETF exchange to revise its application, and approved the 196-4 application three days later, but the S-1 application is still pending. Due to the July 4 holiday, the SEC may postpone its decision until the week of July 8. If the SEC takes action this week, the price of ETH may rebound. CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu said that the largest BTC outflow in 2024 occurred on July 5, when more than 46,000 BTC flowed out of the spot exchange. Investors generally regard such large-scale withdrawals as bullish signals. Large holders may expect price increases or want to hold for the long term rather than sell.

According to Forbes research, Argentina's inflation rate over the past year was 276%, and Argentina has a higher cryptocurrency adoption rate than other countries in the Western Hemisphere. Cboe submitted Form 196-4 to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to list the VanEck Solana ETF. Nate Geraci, president of TheETF Store, commented that once the SEC confirms the documents, the decision clock will start "ticking." The final deadline for the Solana ETF is mid-March 2025. On July 9, Powell said in congressional testimony and hearings: There has been one good and one very good inflation data, and more good data is needed; the labor market has cooled significantly, and if unexpected weakness is seen, it will respond; more good inflation data is needed to cut interest rates; the timing of the rate cut will depend on the data and the situation in the labor market; interest rates will be adjusted cautiously. Goldman Sachs Asset Management believes that the Fed is "close" to its first rate cut. Analyst Krishna Guha said: Powell's comments on the "changing balance of risks" are dovish, and he will continue to lay the foundation for a possible rate cut in September, provided that the upcoming data is released, especially the inflation report on Thursday. The Nasdaq index rose 0.25% during the Powell hearing, and the S&P 500 index rose 0.25. The big cake was repeatedly between $57,000 and $58,000. On July 8, the US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of $295 million. Six US spot ETH ETF applicants have submitted S-1 document updates, including Fidelity, VanEck, Franklin, 21Shares, Grayscale, and BlackRock. Bitfinex Alpha reported that on July 3, the price of BTC fell to $53,219 due to market concerns about the sell-off of De and MtGox creditors. Weekend market data showed that short-term holders may have been nearly exhausted and the market was oversold, which usually means that the market is finding a bottom.

In terms of macroeconomics, the Fed remains cautious about rate cuts. Although labor market data and easing inflation support loose monetary conditions, the agency does not expect the Fed to cut interest rates at the July 30-31 policy meeting, but still hopes for a rate cut in September. Analyst Alex Kriger analyzed and calculated the decline that MtGox and German BTC sales could cause. Based on the current market liquidity and the market decline caused by several previous large BTC transfers, Kriger concluded based on pessimistic assumptions: MtGox and German sales could trigger a rapid decline of 10.5% in BTC, but in general the market can fully absorb the above selling pressure. Economist Jeremy Siegel said that Fed Powell really should announce a September rate cut at the July (31) meeting, or another rate cut in November. If the Fed does not start cutting interest rates soon, the US stock market and economy will face risks, and the current economy is in a period of economic slowdown. Analyst Janet Mui said that the expectations of rate cuts, slowing inflation and a more balanced US labor market have increased investors' optimism and believed that the current stock market rebound can continue. On July 9, Powell praised the decline in inflation at the hearing, but still did not give an opinion on the timing of the rate cut. The market currently believes that the possibility of a rate cut in September is over 70%, higher than 60% last week. The CPI data released on Thursday may have a great impact on whether the Fed can cut interest rates in September. US stock market analysts analyze whether the US stock index can reach a new high, and many believe that it will continue to rise; currency market analysts analyze whether the currency market has bottomed out, and many believe that it has. The currency market bubble was born under the conditions of the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy. Even though there were many extreme negative market conditions in the last cycle, they were smoothed out by interest rate cuts, and this time is no exception. #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #德国政府转移比特币 #BTC下跌分析