News of an Ethereum (ETH) ETF approval could spark a new bull run in the cryptocurrency market, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) playing a crucial role in it.
SEC’s Key Role in Ethereum (ETH) Spot ETF: Latest Updates
As expected, the Ethereum ETF is considered to be the tipping point for a new bull run, but it requires approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Currently, regulators, traders, and investors are eagerly awaiting the release of the S-1 form for the spot Ethereum ETF, which is expected to be released this weekend.
Today, entities including BlackRock, 21Shares, Fidelity, and Grayscale will file Form S-1 with the SEC for an ETH ETF after making the necessary changes.
There has been much attention on the launch of a Bitcoin spot ETF in the first half of 2024. Now, the market’s attention has turned to the prospects of an Ethereum ETF.
Bitcoin showed a clear signal on yesterday's 4-hour chart, and the market is currently in a regional bottom stage. Although the German government continues to sell Bitcoin, the market's panic has weakened and failed to effectively fall below the support level of $55,000 again.
Future macro factors remain full of expectations, such as the possible approval of the Ethereum ETF, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and more crypto-friendly policies, all of which are expected to further promote the development of the crypto industry.
For contract traders, the current market is at a critical turning point and they need to pay special attention to the risk of liquidation.
Judging from market trends, we are in the third phase of the crypto market, the “BTC/ETH season”.
The market is divided into four stages:
1. General bear season: the stage from the peak of the bull market to the bottom of the bear market, when the overall market generally declines.
2. Washout season: From the bottom of the bear market to the start of the next bull market (for example, October 12, 2023 as the starting point), the market is mainly in a state of shock with a slight increase.
3. BTC/ETH season: From the start of the bull market to the lowest point of the altcoin market capitalization share, it is characterized by an overall increase, but the increase in Bitcoin and Ethereum is larger, and the altcoin market capitalization share gradually decreases to the lowest point.
4. Altcoin Season: From the lowest point of the altcoin market capitalization to the peak of the bull market, the market generally rose, altcoins had the largest increase, Ethereum also performed relatively well, while Bitcoin's increase was relatively low.
The market is currently in the middle of the "BTC/ETH season". This round of wash season is relatively short, so the BTC/ETH season is expected to be longer. In terms of time, the last round of BTC/ETH season ended 8 months after the halving, while the current one ended 3 months after the halving, with a gap of about 5 months.
In terms of the increase target, the total increase of BTC/ETH in the last quarter reached 480%, while the current increase is only 100%, which has not yet reached the level of the previous round.
Taking into account the market trends, Ethereum performed well in both the BTC/ETH season and the altcoin season and is one of the preferred assets worth holding.
Analysts are sharply divided over the future of the upcoming Ethereum spot exchange-traded fund (ETF).
On the one hand, the financial community has different views on the impact that the debut of the Ethereum ETF may bring. Some analysts believe that although the launch of the Bitcoin ETF has led to a sharp rise in the price of Bitcoin, they are skeptical that Ethereum will follow the same path. Galaxy Research expects that the inflow of funds to the Ethereum ETF may be slower than that of Bitcoin, estimating that it will achieve a net inflow of about $5 billion in the first five months.
On the other hand, some observers are optimistic about the future of Ethereum after the launch of the ETF. Steno Research predicts that by the end of this year, the price of Ethereum may reach at least $6,500, which is 33% higher than its previous all-time high.
Standard Chartered Bank gave a more optimistic forecast, predicting that the Ethereum spot ETF could attract up to $45 billion in inflows in the first 12 months after approval. They believe that by the end of 2024, the price of Ethereum could reach $8,000.
To sum up, there are different market expectations for the launch of Ethereum ETF, ranging from skeptical to very optimistic.
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