Author | Mu Mu

Produced by｜Baihua Blockchain

The crypto market has been unpredictable recently, and many people have begun to think that this is a strange bull market, and no one is making money. Many people even complain that this is the most difficult Bitcoin bull market in history to make money! Therefore, people who have always believed that "when the market is good, everything looks like the future, and when the market is bad, every project looks like a crooked melon or a jujube" have begun to doubt their lives and the value of the entire crypto industry, and think that the bull market is about to end...

01. It is difficult to make money in a bull market

Although this round of bull market is strange, after so many rounds of bull market, it should be nothing new. This point has been compared and analyzed in the previous article "The logic of Bitcoin bull market has quietly changed, but many people still can't make money?" In fact, it is not that this round of bull market is not profitable, but it is not easy to make money in every bull market. You know, most of the people who made money in the past few rounds did not get on the train in the bull market. Those who smelled the "money-making" opportunity in the bull market will only know later that others made money from the money they provided.

In essence, those who can survive the bull and bear markets unscathed are the real winners. In the years of ups and downs in the Bitcoin and crypto markets, many famous gold diggers have come, including SBF, a genius trader on Wall Street, and Do Kwon, known as the "Korean Musk", who have all failed in the crypto market. The lessons learned from them are very simple. In addition to being eager for quick success and not respecting risks, the most important point is the error of "crypto values".

For a long time, many traders, including SBF, who call themselves "smart people", entered the crypto market. Perhaps they did not recognize the value of Bitcoin and crypto assets, but believed that there were "many fools who took over" here. The idea of ​​buying "air" Bitcoin at a low price and reselling it to fools was very popular in this market. But what they could not imagine was that in this highly free market, they could never escape the fate of "big fish eating small fish". In any industry, anyone who does not pursue the correct values ​​of the industry, does not recognize the value of the industry, and enters with the mentality of "cutting leeks" is destined to fail in this career. Even if they taste the sweetness at the beginning, they will soon be bitten back by the market.

Perhaps many people have forgotten the original intention of Bitcoin and the crypto industry, and the final result of distorted values ​​may be serious misjudgment.

02. What went wrong with the value project?

In this round of bull market, an obvious feature is that many "value projects" that are popular among VCs and old-fashioned crypto value projects that have been built in the crypto market before, including Ethereum, Layer2, Metaverse, DeFi, etc., which many people thought would soar in the bull market, do not seem to have been recognized by the market. Instead, people seem to be more willing to participate in inscriptions and Memes. This cannot help but make people reflect on what went wrong with the "crypto value projects" that have been built for so many years?

In fact, we cannot blame the market for not accepting valuable projects, but the "valuable projects" really have problems! Recently, we have observed that the Ethereum GAS price has even dropped to 1. Some Layer2, Metaverse, DeFI projects, and newly listed VC projects with few daily active users have not yet started, but their market capitalizations are as high as hundreds of millions or even billions. With such poor data and such a high market capitalization, people feel that there is an extremely overvalued bubble. Of course, no one would be willing to accept it foolishly. It is better to directly rush to the Meme with low market capitalization and reject all kinds of PUA.

For a long time, many people have paid too much attention to the surface and ignored the fundamental reasons behind it. In fact, it is not that valuable projects have no value. The valuation of many valuable projects is not only measured by active users, because it carries tens of billions or hundreds of billions of TVL behind it, and these amounts of funds cannot be ignored.

Of course, the most important point is that the "wool-pulling" movement that has been prevalent in recent years has not only spawned a large number of fake users, but also made it difficult for new VC projects to be valued and difficult to calm down and do things, which has then developed into a problem for the entire Web3 industry. A large amount of fake traffic and users have kidnapped these projects to some extent. Some organizations even take advantage of the bad market atmosphere for profit and highly customize: to deceive VCs to take over, create a superficial star team, and customize "valuable projects" for "wool-pulling" people. No one cares about technology, and no one cares whether it solves real needs and problems. It is conceivable that such VC projects with deformed value orientation will be harvested as soon as they are landed, and end in a dismal end.

As a result, people discovered that impurities were mixed into the new and old "value projects". Even a bad apple can spoil the whole barrel, not to mention that this is a common phenomenon... Therefore, since it is unclear whether there is value or not, then not taking over becomes the best strategy.

Of course, even so, we cannot completely deny most of the projects that maintain the original value of encryption. Bitcoin brings asset transparency and self-custody, realizing the sanctity and inviolability of personal property. Ethereum, including Layer2 and other smart contract platforms, brings a "trusted" operating environment for Internet applications, pushing the Internet from online to onchain... After going through baptism, I believe that they can still stand firm in the continuous self-correction of the encryption market.

03. The logic of the bull market has changed and remains unchanged

The logic of the bull market has not changed. All along, most altcoins have only been the recipients of the value overflow after Bitcoin surged. When the price of Bitcoin enters a high range, it is difficult to rush up. People find that many small altcoins with new narratives and low market capitalization seem to be "value depressions". So driven by FOMO emotions, some funds choose to rush to these surrounding altcoin "small reservoirs". Because the pool is small, only a small amount of funds is needed to obtain several times or dozens of times the increase, so people gradually understand the logic of the bull market.

But this year, in addition to new and old copies of various concepts, Meme projects have blossomed. The market has discovered that the value of FOMO emotions can also be collected by containers. Since FOMO emotions can be directly put into Memes, why waste energy on those "copycat traps" that are full of all kinds of "rotten apples" and prepared for retail investors everywhere?

As a result, Meme directly intercepted the funds that should have flowed to the copycat. The bull market logic changed, but it did not change. It was just that a circle of Meme pools appeared next to the copycat pool to absorb the overflow of Bitcoin funds.

04. Has the cow gone? Most people may have lost their way.

Many people are entangled and conflicted about whether the bull market is over and whether there are still copycat bull markets. But what I want to say is that since we have long known that for most people: "a bull market does not necessarily mean making money, and a bear market does not necessarily mean losing money", if this is the case, why should we care so much about whether the bull market is over or not?

Taking history as a mirror, let’s take a look at the trend chart of gold over the past 100 years. You will find that Bitcoin, the digital gold, has many similarities with gold in terms of trend charts, in addition to some similar properties:

1) If the timeline is extended, the early price trend, whether bullish or bearish, almost becomes a straight line

2) Prices fluctuate in cycles and always maintain a long-term spiral upward channel

It is simple to draw a conclusion with a high probability that it is correct. Like Bitcoin and gold, the best long-term strategy for the next 100 years will always be to buy on dips.

Gold is positively correlated with the size of U.S. Treasury bonds

The world, represented by the United States, has long since entered the path of printing money to create huge debts, and the only way to resolve the ever-increasing debts is to start printing money...

05. Summary

Recently, factors such as the liquidation of Mentougou's debts and government selling have brought huge negative impacts to the market, but the good thing is that these "Swords of Damos" hanging over the crypto market have also disappeared. If we extend the timeline, the "bull" will always be there, so there is no need to worry at all, just quietly hold the original intention of crypto and patiently welcome the new era.