Author: Climber, Golden Finance

On July 5, the crypto market experienced another sharp drop, with BTC falling below $53,500. As of the time of writing, BTC has risen to $58,000. But whether it is the best time to buy the bottom is only known by the hand behind the market.

Similarly, whenever the crypto market falls back deeply, there is always a divergence between long and short positions in the market, and a lot of noise affects investment decisions. However, the biggest difference between this decline and the past is between Bitcoin and altcoins.

At the beginning of the bear-end bull market in October last year, BTC was floating at $25,000, and then it rose all the way to $73,777. At present, BTC has fallen by about 27.5%, but most altcoins have wiped out the gains and fallen to the starting point of this round of market. Mechanism Capital even said that more than 98% of altcoins have peaked in this cycle. In short, altcoins can no longer bear the weight of the decline, but the long and short sides of the crypto market still have different views and each has its own basis.

1. Bullish and potential benefits:

Matrixport: It is expected that the US SEC may approve the spot Ethereum ETF this week, and the ETH price may rebound. Due to the July 4 holiday, the SEC may postpone the decision to the week of July 8. If the SEC takes action this week, the ETH price may rebound.

Jack Dorsey, founder of Block: BTC may replace the US dollar, and BTC is expected to reach $1 million. Over time, people will gradually realize the value and power of BTC, and BTC may replace the US dollar. It will take some time for people to gradually realize the value of this system.

Blockstream CEO: There have been six 30% declines in the bull market in history, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Because the decline this time is about 26%, in fact, the recent decline is not large.

Fundstrat Global Advisors Research Director: BTC is expected to rise to $150,000 after the Mt.Gox distribution is completed. One of the biggest negatives will disappear in July, which I think is one reason to expect a sharp rebound in the second half of the year.

10x Research: Bitcoin appears to be oversold in the short term and may rebound. Bitcoin's downside target of $55,000 has been reached, and macroeconomic benefits are expected next week. In addition, the US SEC may approve the Ethereum ETF, which may trigger positive momentum in the short term. However, it is not a significant buying opportunity in the medium term.

GSR Lianchuang: Bitcoin still has enough time to hit new highs before the end of the year. It is expected that the amount to be paid by (Mt.Gox) will become a "burden in the third quarter" of the market. "This is almost the same as the number of bitcoins mined in the first year after the halving. However, once it is digested, (the price of Bitcoin) still has enough time to hit a new record high before the end of the year."

Analyst: Bitcoin's daily RSI indicator shows clear bullish divergence signals. Encouraging signals, including a bullish divergence, are seen from the Bitcoin relative strength index (RSI) on the daily time frame.

Founder of CryptoQuant: This round of Bitcoin cycle is different, and there is still a lot of institutional capital waiting to enter the market. This round of cycle is special, and the source of funds is different. Spot Bitcoin ETF currently accounts for a quarter of the total spot trading volume, which means that the new funds entering the market are more mature than ever before, and I believe there will be more mature funds in the future. Mature funds usually have diamond hands. There is still a lot of institutional capital waiting to enter the field, and the channel is now open for them.

CryptoQuant analyst: Bitcoin miner capitulation indicator is close to the bottom after the FTX crash, which may indicate that the market has bottomed out. Specifically, the Bitcoin miner capitulation indicator is close to the market bottom level after the FTX crash in 2022, which may indicate that the BTC market has bottomed out. Miner capitulation refers to some miners reducing operations or selling the mined BTC to maintain their livelihoods or hedge risks.

This is similar to what happened when BTC bottomed out at $15,500 in late 2022, when BTC rallied more than 300% over the next 15 months.

Rekt Capital: The longer Bitcoin consolidates after the halving, the better the current cycle will resynchronize with the traditional halving cycle.

Positive factors:

CryptoQuan: Bitcoin miners’ selling pressure is weakening and if absorbed, it may form an upward momentum.

Crypto analyst Ash Crypto: FTX's repayment to creditors will be the biggest catalyst for rising cryptocurrency prices.

People are worried about the MT.GOX crash and other negative factors, but some factors will drive the crypto market to new highs, such as FTX's plan to distribute more than $16 billion to its creditors, August 16 is the deadline for FTX customers to vote, and Judge Dorsey will make a decision on the plan approval on October 7.

If the court approves, FTX will repay creditors within two months, which according to the schedule will occur between the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025. This perfectly matches other positive factors (such as interest rate cuts, the implementation of Financial Accounting Standards Board accounting rules and the results of the US election). The huge amount of US$16 billion will enter the cryptocurrency market and become the biggest catalyst for price increases.

Financial Times: Former President Trump's possible return to the White House would trigger a major surge in the value of Bitcoin. The concept of the "Trump trade" has become increasingly popular among cryptocurrency traders due to the former president's "perceived pro-cryptocurrency stance and policies." Analysts believe that Trump's victory could lead to a significant rise in Bitcoin, with the potential to hit another all-time high in August and reach $100,000 on Election Day.

Other positive factors include: Japanese listed company Metaplanet has purchased BTC multiple times; the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a cumulative net inflow of US$238.4 million in the first week of July; the founder of Dell may buy a large amount of Bitcoin; and Sony plans to restart the acquired cryptocurrency exchange Whalefin.

2. Bearish and potential negative factors:

Gold advocate Peter Schiff: BTC bear market still has a long way to go, ETH may fall to $1,500. Currently "at a critical support level", if the support level is unstable, the price may fall sharply.

So far, there are no signs of panic. Bitcoin may need to fall significantly before they finally capitulate. This could happen as early as next week, especially after another massive sell-off this weekend.

Andrew Kang: More than 98% of altcoins have peaked in this cycle, and buying the bottom too early is a common investment mistake. The most common mistake in the crypto market is to buy too early when the trend turns from up to down. Adjustments after the collapse of large market structures are often deeper and longer than expected. Bitcoin is in the transition stage to a super-cyclical asset, combining the characteristics of previous cycles and the characteristics of mature macro assets. eToro analyst: BTC's trend will deteriorate further in the next few days, and a market reversal requires an upward catalyst event. The current selling activity is obviously unsettling investors, which often triggers more selling. Prices will be weak in the short term until the market receives a catalyst to drive prices higher.

Analyst Axel Adler Jr: The unrealized profit indicator on the Bitcoin chain may trigger further selling. Currently, ordinary investors have made 84% unrealized profits from their Bitcoin investments. The price is close to the average value (PR Bands) of $52,200 – this will reduce unrealized profits by about 14%, and investors may choose to take profits due to concerns about further price declines.

Material Indicators: Bitcoin faces technical resistance at the 200-day moving average. If Bitcoin fails to do this, be prepared for the market to test support in the $50,000 to $53,000 range.

Ali charts data: Capital continues to exit the crypto market, falling from more than $110 billion in March to $20 billion today.

Negative events:

Binance: Bitcoin miners record longest streak of net selling since 2017.

Lookonchain: The German government has transferred a total of 13,466 BTC since June 19 and still holds 39,826 BTC (July 7).

Mt.Gox compensation lasted for about two months, the FTX verdict date has not been determined, the supervision is unclear, and large amounts of tokens of crypto projects have been unlocked, etc.

summary

As for the current crypto market's judgment on the future market, the majority of voices are still bullish. The main reasons behind this are that the negative factors such as the government, ETFs, miners' selling, and Mt.Gox compensation have been released, while there are many expected positive factors in the second half of the year, such as interest rate cuts, general elections, FTX debt repayments, Ethereum ETF approval, etc., especially the crypto bull market cycle theory, which makes many investors optimistic about the future market.

However, investors still need to note that the crypto market is extremely risky and easily affected by negative factors, so they must always protect their principal.