July 8, 2024 Grandpa checks in
Here it comes again. The German government transferred another 1,000 BTC, 500 of which were transferred to Coinbase and Bitstamp, and the other 500 were transferred to another address, which is speculated to be a market maker. Obviously, Germany's blunt knife has not left the market yet. With the continued selling of BTC, Bitcoin will face further challenges. However, now the market has begun to report a terrifying minimum price, some say 30,000, some say 20,000. I can only say that according to the current holdings of the German government, even if all are sold, it will not reach this price, so there is no need to worry if there are no other black swans.
I had a warning about the market in recent months. From March to May, I implemented the strategy of only selling and not buying. Basically, I sold when the price went up, and bought when the price went down to make some swings. This wave of retracement is within my expectations, which is to prepare for the super bull market next year, and the lowest price depends on the occurrence of black swans. To a certain extent, the German government accidentally confiscated 50,000 bitcoins and chose to sell them. This is a black swan event in itself, just because it is a blunt knife. Therefore, the bottom price of this wave of bitcoins must wait until the German government stops selling or sells all its coins.
According to rumors, the forces behind this wave of decline are not only Germany, but also the United States and the mysterious Eastern power. As for the chips that crashed the market, they all came from punishment. According to the liquidity of the market, this rumor is relatively reliable. In other words, a crash of a few hundred million US dollars would not cause such a big drop, and the ETF's positive news was pulling the market up before. In short, this wave of crashing the market is the real chips being shipped. As long as the chips of the German government are not transferred out in large quantities in a short period of time, it will not cause a new plunge.
In the short term, I said yesterday that there is a high probability of a rebound after an oversold situation. But don’t be optimistic after the rebound. It is impossible to go up directly after a big drop. Instead, there will be a period of shock or a second bottoming out. The market trend after this wave of decline is basically consistent with what I said. Therefore, I judge that if the German government continues to ship goods, the big cake can hold the previous low, which means a stage bottom. You should have also noticed that when the big cake fell back today, the cottage did not fall below.
Thank you for your attention and likes.