Will the script of the market be written like this?

The biggest driving force for the future market is ETH ETF and interest rate cuts!

According to the news, Bitwise has submitted the revised S-1 of ETF spot Eth, and stated that it is likely to be launched this month. Eric Balchunas said that it is likely to be listed this month. Many people in the market also believe that it is likely to be passed at the next US summer hearing, but there is no specific and accurate news.

As for the interest rate cut, the market's current biggest expectation is September and November.

There are several market assumptions:

Assumption 1:

ETF passed in July or August, interest rate cut in September.

Then the next July and August will still fluctuate and bottom out (a small increase before the ETF is passed), and after the interest rate cut is implemented and the fake fall, a new big market will start in October.

Hypothesis 2:

ETF is passed in any month of July, August, or September, and the interest rate is cut in November

Then the probability is that the ETF will rise slightly before it is passed, and then it will be briefly adjusted after it is passed, and then it will fluctuate. In September and October, it will cooperate with the expectation of interest rate cuts and the funds entering the ETF to launch a small market in the stage. After the interest rate cut in November, the market will adjust for 1 to 2 months, and a new big market will be launched in the first quarter of 2025.

In short, it is unwise to sell chips now. It seems that the bull market in the second half has not really arrived. Taking all into consideration, there are still many opportunities in the market. From a larger scale, we are experiencing a new bottoming stage.

Next, we have to fight against the risks of the market and prepare for long-term operations. At least we must survive in the second half of the year!

Don’t be harmonious, don’t leverage, make plans for over-the-counter leverage, and the spot should be mainly ETH, supplemented by cottages, and don’t be full of cottages. This will better fight against the uncertain market changes in the future.

We still don’t have much time to wait for the bull market in the second half, just a few months, we can wait.

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