BTC weekly level rising channel has been established!
This shows that the current bull market is very likely to be a "fake bull", similar to the bull market in 2019, because the past few rounds of bull markets have been difficult to be constrained in an upward channel in the main rising wave. Only the bull market with insufficient liquidity will remain in the upward channel, rising and stopping;
At present, the bull market with bull market characteristics and technical support of the rising channel is only in 2019.
If the probability is evaluated from the perspective of technical analysis, the rising channel will eventually break and reverse, because the price cannot always fluctuate upward along a track;
For the moment, the only thing that cannot be confirmed is whether the price will touch the upper or middle track of the channel again before the channel breaks, and reach a new high;
Because if we look at it from the perspective of waves, the current bull market seems to lack a fifth wave.
The above are objective facts, and the following are subjective opinions for reference only:
1. The current market has experienced long-term fluctuations, and too many loss chips have accumulated at high levels, which is not conducive to the price reaching a new high;
2. The best macro-level scenario this year is two interest rate cuts, but two interest rate cuts cannot bring substantial liquidity abundance, so it is difficult to reach a new high;
3. The government and Mentougou's selling will continue for 1 to 2 months. The price lacks strong buying in the short term and can only maintain low-level fluctuations. Over time, even if the price remains sideways, it will eventually fall below the rising channel;
4. The U.S. stock market is seriously overbought, and BTC follows the decline but not the rise, which means that the liquidity of the entire U.S. dollar money market has been almost sucked out by the U.S. stock market. If the U.S. stock market has a large technical repair or correction in the future, it will be unfavorable for BTC;
5. BTC's short-term supply has been released. Although the demand is weak, it is not difficult to rebound and test the lower edge of the 60,000 supply zone and maintain the price in the range of 52,000~61,000.
Conclusion: BTC tends to maintain the range of 52k~61k until the US stock market has a sharp correction, falls below the rising channel, and ends the bull market;
But this does not mean that it will enter a deep bear market, but a trend of oscillating downward consolidation similar to that of 2019~2020. I personally tend to think that the real bull market will come in 2025. The current market is not a big bull, but a small bull or a fake bull.
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