The turning point of the collapse of the last bull market was clearly reflected in the Fed's interest rate hike policy. This decision not only marked a sharp change in the market direction, but also profoundly affected investors' psychological expectations and behavior patterns. When the news of the interest rate hike first appeared, the market did not immediately respond in full, but occasionally showed signs of rebound, causing some investors to wait and see or question. However, as time went on, the market gradually adapted to this new normal, and the negative impact of the interest rate hike began to emerge. Many investors have been trapped in trouble without knowing it, especially those who hold spot, and eventually found themselves trapped at the top of the market. It is worth noting that many cryptocurrency projects in the last bull market disappeared in the subsequent bear market, which once again reminds us that even seemingly stable spot investments are at risk of returning to zero.
In view of this, the current market is extremely sensitive to the Fed's policy trends. Many investors believe that only by confirming the Fed's interest rate cut can a new round of bull market be strongly supported. Therefore, once the Fed announces an interest rate hike, they will not hesitate to adopt a short-selling strategy to avoid potential risks, regardless of the book profit or loss at the time.
As for the current state of the market, whether it is in a bull market or a bear market, or halfway up the mountain or at the top of the mountain, this is a complex and subjective question. However, looking at the key indicator of Bitcoin computing power may provide us with some clues. The current Bitcoin computing power has dropped to its lowest level since December 2022, which is even close to the low point when FTX crashed. The collapse of FTX directly caused the market to plummet to the bottom of the bear market, so the current computing power level may indicate that the market is approaching or at a similar turning point.
Of course, this does not mean that we can directly conclude that the market is about to turn to a bear market, because the market trend is affected by many factors, including but not limited to the macroeconomic environment, policy changes, market sentiment, etc. But in any case, investors should remain vigilant, pay close attention to market dynamics, and make reasonable investment decisions based on their own risk tolerance. In the cryptocurrency world, risks and returns coexist, and the key lies in how to balance the relationship between the two.
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