Many friends are asking if the cow is still there?
The definition of a bull market itself is very vague. Some people consider it a bull market only when the market is truly flooded with money, while others consider it a bull market only when it breaks through ma200. If the latter uses ma200 as the dividing line between bull and bear markets, a break below it means it is temporarily a bear market, while a break through means it is a bull market. The ma200 in recent days has been around 58,000. You can understand it as a turn from bull to bear market, but I don’t think this round of big cycle of flooding the market has come yet (bull market in the interest rate cut cycle)!
Will there be new funds entering the market to boost the market?
Yes! The latest market information on Bitcoin:
1. Spot market: US spot ETFs have a cumulative net inflow of US$14.763 billion, with a net inflow of US$143 million yesterday. There is a fund coming in to copy a little bit;
2. In the futures market, Deribit’s Bitcoin bulk options bought 85,000 call options at the end of March next year. In addition to these, Dell’s founder and others have expressed their intention to enter.
Knowing that the current cost of miners is 48,000 to 52,000 yuan, there will be another force supporting this position.
In the long run, this decline is more certain that a big bull market will come in the future. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are seriously oversold technically, which can be seen from the rebound last night. Some funds have come in to copy, but not a lot. In the future, it depends on the funds. There will be a chance to rebound more. If 55,000 can be stabilized, there will be a chance to try 6W again. Ethereum has just broken 3,000, and it will continue to toss and repair here until it accumulates enough strength to go up. After all, it will soon become a question of whether Ethereum's ETF will be approved!
The 23~25 cycle market is divided into before halving and after halving. At present, the market before halving has completed two stages, and the market after halving has not yet started. From 23 to now, it has only gone halfway, and there is still a year and a half to 25.
We can roughly deduce the future trend. Compared with Bitcoin, Ethereum is a copycat. After Bitcoin fell, Ethereum was weaker. At this stage, if Ethereum is compared to Bitcoin, then the copycat should also be weaker to build a bottom. Now Ethereum has fallen to around 2810. Considering that the lower lead was relatively long yesterday, it means that there are still many people who are bottom-fishing. However, the rebound strength today is average. Therefore, it is not ruled out that there will be aftershocks in the future. I am planning to build positions and bottom-fish from next week!
Since we have chosen the field of cryptocurrency investment, we should be more calm in doing this job. The market has deceived me thousands of times, but I still treat it as the first time. What I mean is that we should never let the market affect our own operating logic!
Since the market has chosen to fall deeply, there will definitely be a bottoming process, leaving us ample time to buy the bottom. For the weak rebound of the cottage, it is recommended that you do not think too much about buying the bottom. The current market buying is still a left-side position. In the next month, the fixed investment will most likely have a good return. Get the Ethereum ETF to hype it up! The focus is still on the layout of the Ethereum series of varieties and new hot spots!
Regarding Ethereum's ETF, the dates that can be confirmed are July 8th to July 12th (next week) and July 15th to July 19th (the week after next), and the probability of next week is currently higher.
This week, all major ETF applicants for ETH resubmitted updated S-1 documents in accordance with SEC requirements. Since the updated content has not changed much, the update of this document will be closed on July 8, and the final approval process will begin at that time.
Unless the SEC requires the S-1 to be modified again, which is unlikely, the S-1 has already been modified beyond any further revision and the SEC basically does not have much to find fault with.
It will be passed by the week of July 15 at the latest. I hope that next week's ETF can bring new vitality to the crypto market, release the selling pressure, and release the pessimism. Things should be better after the emotions are released.
In short, the most difficult stage is finally over, and many major negative factors have been realized. The liquidation data in the past few days is comparable to the FTX crash at the end of 2022. The characteristics of the bottom are gradually increasing. I suggest that everyone should not be too emotional and bearish. Maybe I am at the bottom now, and I will know the answer in a few months.
In addition, many people no longer believe in copycats. The main force’s goal has been achieved. The second half will be the home court for Ethereum, SOL, and copycats. Allowing retail investors to reach the climax of the bull market in the second half can only be the wealth effect of copycats, and it is also the only means to attract more people to take over the market.
At present, you can either be eliminated by the market or strengthen your learning and grasp the market. In this market, we are here to make money and worry about it. There is no unchanging operating logic, nor is there an operating indicator or operating system that is always applicable. Everything is constantly being updated and iterated! Come on!