Important data from the USA
First, the data: the number of full-time jobs in non-agricultural sectors in June was 206,000 more. higher than a month earlier. This is more than analysts expected in their forecasts (190,000 jobs).
The above could be considered a sign of the strength of the US economy. But that's not the whole picture. The unemployment rate rose over the month from 4% to 4.1%. This is the highest since November 2021. Here the result surprised the experts negatively. Most economists predicted that the percentage of people unemployed would remain at 4%.
If you don't know what I mean, let me add that this means as many as 6.811 million people actively looking for a job. A jump by a decimal place means an increase of 162,000. And this is on a monthly basis.
The cryptocurrency market has been waiting for such data
How to interpret such data? Experts agree: they indicate a weakening labor market. This means that the Fed now has a very serious dilemma.
Of course, the Federal Reserve could continue its policies and still not cut interest rates. But the cool job market suggests otherwise. Continuing to keep rates in the range of 5.25-5.5% may lead the economy to a more serious recession. It is clear that the current policy of quantitative tightening has begun to suppress money circulation. This should bring inflation down to the ground floor, but at the same time it risks a crisis.
The market began to assume that the Fed would make the first cut at the September meeting - to 5-5.25% - the probability of this scenario is 72%.