Everyone knows that every time the market is in a downturn, everyone will blame the market for not attracting Web2 users, so no new funds come in. This is the so-called "Mass Adoption" narrative, that is, Crypto's "Web3" product should cater to the non-profit-oriented users of Web2.

This logic is like "children in Africa will starve to death because you waste food in China." It is emotional but illogical.

Mass Adoption - First understand who Mass is?

Who is Mass? Don't make the general statement about traditional Web2 users - Bullshit. "The public" is a group of different but classifiable individuals.

A blind person does not drive a domestic electric car, not because he does not support domestic products, but because he does not have a driver's license (there is no demand). Anything that can continue to attract users is simply because users have irreplaceable needs and it provides irreplaceable solutions. This is true for cars, and so is Crypto.

Whether you agree with it or not, Crypto has boundaries. All its features (whether privacy or decentralization) come from its core value - permissionless, which is not available to most people on the planet. The non-permission is mainly to deal with the restrictions on freedom by banks, governments and large companies: if the bank does not allow you to open an account and make payments freely, you insist on it; if the government does not allow you to invest in speculation and does not allow gambling, you insist on it; if big companies do not allow you to gamble, you insist on it; You insist on government-restricted speech.

Those in need are by no means the majority. The majority are domestic animals disciplined by the system. But those "marginal people in society" who understand arbitrage and are anti-establishment - I call the characteristics of such people "businessmen" (of course, personality characteristics are not black and white, but are similar to a spectrum, divided into strong and weak) .

They may not really be in business or even have money, but they are destined to be a minority, otherwise the rule cannot be maintained.

These people can "talk business". If ordinary people think that to get a good job by getting a job is to sell their whole person to the "unit" at wholesale price, then Crypto's audience is the kind of people who want to fully price all their time, energy, connections and other resources, and put " Sell ​​it yourself at a good price. This type of person must have making money as their primary goal.

We might have been Mass Adopted?

So how many people in the "businessman" spectrum I just mentioned have not been exposed to Crypto?

According to United Nations data, the "average" annual income of adults around the world is US$23,000. If he spends 10% of his money to enter Crypto, no matter what he does, that's 18.4 trillion for the 8 billion people in the world. Based on Binance’s spot trading volume of 112 billion in March 2024, the spot volume alone for the whole year will be more than 13 trillion. That is to say, there is still more than 30% space. Of course, including other exchanges, it may have exceeded this number long ago.

Of course, this is an average. It really depends on the top 10% of global income earners, accounting for 52% of the global total income, or almost 800 million people. http://Crypto.com says that the number of global cryptocurrency users will be 520 million in 2023, so there is almost 30% room. After this more than 30% space is closed, we will almost see an average annual growth similar to the gaming industry (about 4.7%), which is almost equal to the Federal Reserve interest rate.

You think there are no new users now because the market is about to reach its actual TAM extreme. It would be strange for people with secondary or higher education not to have heard of Bitcoin in 2024.

Do you still want to "send dramas to the countryside" to "Mass Adopt" Web2 users? Anyone who is likely to be adopted by you has most likely already been exposed to coins.

The stock market has never been a problem, high-frequency users are.

I have experience in the gaming industry, which is one of the largest industries in the world including online and offline. From the perspective of the industry as a whole, using the logic of "Mass Adoption", there is no incremental market stock market for gambling - in theory, the world's rich people are my market, because rich people all have a gambling habit. The growth of the gaming industry has grown with global inflation.

Offline gambling is still regional, but Crypto is even global, and its performance is not affected by regional tourism. Therefore, Crypto and gambling are logically connected from the industry level. If the performance is not good one year, it is not because there are no new users, it is just like the casino cannot compete for customer traffic. Rather, existing users have produced fewer codes and placed bets less frequently.

There are two main types of people in casinos. One is those who are particularly proficient and addicted to one or two games, such as slot machines and baccarat. Most of them are old men and old ladies (go there every day, high frequency). Another type that contributes the most is the VIP room, which basically accounts for 80% of the casino (can be understood as big players).

The same logic: The essence of Crypto’s growth is the process of cultivating high-frequency and large investors.

Mass Admission instead of Mass Adoption

I would like to ask how many people know how to calculate scores in slot machines? How many people know how to play baccarat? How many people know Texas? Learning these is more expensive than learning to play coins: complex rules, the courage to play, and the threshold for entry (membership, trading, etc.).

Why don’t casinos have “adoption” issues? Because casinos provide an irreplaceable solution to an irreplaceable need (gambling). The casino makes it clear to customers: you are here to win money. If you want to win money in a casino, you must learn the rules of the casino. It is the casino that lets you in to gamble (Admission), rather than catering to the "daily needs" (Adoption) of your other identities.

It’s hard to imagine a casino coming out and telling you, “I want to be a social network for gamblers, so that they can take the initiative to spend more in our Whiskey Bar instead of coming here with the purpose of winning money.” - Development of the Gambling Industry At most, it can go from offline to online, accept multiple payment methods, and have cooler slot machine themes to make the UX better.

Similarly, Crypto/Web3 needs to make it clear that "let them make money!" (Admit) the "businessmen" in the world to come here and try to make money, on the condition that they learn the rules of Crypto. The way they win money is to play games involving cash flow (trading, pledging, lending, etc.), and everything revolves around this logic.

Those who do not play according to the rules (such as not reading the three-game theory when doing projects, and only listening to KOL speculation), and those who play too hard and lead to bankruptcy, will be eliminated. The remaining proficient people are high-frequency users who have formed muscle memory. , the best among them are invited to enter the VIP hall. The so-called construction means that more people can participate in the trial, participate in the trial faster, have more diverse and cool trials, the total bet is larger, the game is more continuous, and Provide gamblers with something to show off their status (gambling halls sell watches and luxury goods, but in Crypto they sell NFTs?). What I’m talking about here is not just project selection, but also growth.

Summarize

Mass Admission is a core logic for me to look at projects and do projects, and it is even the first logic I think about. Using this logic, think about it, why are memes popular, inscriptions popular, and Solana popular, but not the entire series of Ethereum coins (except Base), VC coins, and RWA? Why do I say that the most lacking thing is Dev instead of "users"?

I believe you will have different answers.

[Disclaimer] There are risks in the market, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions contained in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly and do so at your own risk.

  • This article is reprinted with permission from: "Deep Wave TechFlow"

  • Original author: Encrypted Wei Tuo