On Friday, the U.S. released data showing that the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in June were 206,000, 190,000 higher than expected and 272,000 lower than the previous value. The unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, higher than expected and 4.00% higher than the previous value. The U.S. unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, the highest since November 2021, and non-farm payrolls fell sharply. The interest rate swap market once again fully priced in the Fed's two rate cuts before the end of the year. The Nasdaq opened up 0.8% and the S&P 500 rose 0.4%. MtGox began to pay out, and Bitcoin responded.

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German MP Joana Cotar criticized the German government's decision to sell $195 million worth of BTC, believing that this move has increased market volatility and may have a long-term negative impact on the stability of the cryptocurrency market. She said that the German government should reconsider this strategy and discuss with the United States the use of BTC as a strategic reserve currency. The Payments Association called on the incoming British Chancellor of the Exchequer to impose a "technology tax" on social media giants to pay for the impact of payment fraud originating from their platforms, calling for the next stage of open banking and open finance, and taking legislative measures to establish a digital asset ecosystem that includes Web3, DeFi and smart contract standards. Nintendo's president said that Nintendo has confirmed that the company will not include generative artificial intelligence technology in its games due to concerns about intellectual property issues. Mempoo data shows that El Salvador currently holds more than 5,800 BTC, equivalent to about $334 million. Arkham data, the value of cryptocurrency holdings marked as Trump's address fell below the $8 million mark, down about 75% from early June. Arkham data, marked as "US Government" address, transferred 237 BTC to the address starting with bclqvc on July 4. On July 4, the address marked as "German Government" transferred 1,300 BTC.eToro analyst Josh Gilbert said that most of the recent sell-offs are attributed to concerns about the repayment of MtGox creditors. There are far more negative news than positive news, and investors are uneasy, which often triggers more sell-offs until there is a catalyst to improve market sentiment and drive prices up, such as investors "buying on dips" and ETHETF approval. Investors also have reason to be optimistic about the long-term outlook and look forward to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September and the possibility of another rate cut in December to boost prices.

Dovey Wan, partner of Primitive Crypto, said: Miners are only one step away from surrender, and the break-even point of S19 is $52,000, which is the local bottom position. The F2Pool chart shows that the price of BTC has fallen to $53,100. Currently, only five mining machine models can bring profits to their operators, which may mark a "local bottom". The operating costs of all other mining machines are higher than the returns obtained by the operators. On July 5, MtGox continued to send BTC to creditor addresses. Lawyer Nobuaki Kobayashi said: MtGox has begun to repay some creditors in BTC and BCH through some designated cryptocurrency platforms. Data shows that MtGox has successively sent 1,200, 1,544, 2,702, 1,545, and 47,228 BTC to new addresses. Several creditors said that they have received BTC/BCH repaid by MtGox. Justin Sun said that he is willing to negotiate with the German government to purchase all BTC in an over-the-counter manner to minimize the impact on the market. On July 4, Sun Yuchen's address sent 30 million USDT to Bitfinex. Since July 2, Sun Yuchen's three addresses have cumulatively sent 80 million USDT to the exchange. The Fear and Greed Index fell to 29 (the index was 44 "fear state" yesterday), a new low in a year, indicating that the market is currently in a state of fear. Santiment said that the crypto market continued to plummet, and FUD peaks were shown on social media. In the past 24 hours, the largest ratio of negative comments to positive comments so far in 2024 has appeared.

There have been six 30% declines in the bull market in history, and this decline is about 26%. In the 2015-2017 cycle, BTC peaked 518 days after the halving, and in the 2019-2021 cycle, BTC peaked 546 days after the halving. If history repeats itself, the next bull market peak will appear 518-546 days after the halving, which means that BTC may reach the peak of this cycle in mid-September or mid-October 2025. The longer the BTC consolidation period after the halving, the more obvious the phenomenon of the current cycle resynchronizing with the traditional halving cycle. Wintermute CEO Evgeny Gaevoy said: The current market is just a seasonal phenomenon in the summer, and the market will recover before the US election in August and September. QCP Capital said that the price of cryptocurrencies has adjusted significantly, volatility has soared, and the market has responded to the news of the upcoming BTC supply (including the transfer of MtGox and the German government). The spot price has stabilized, indicating that there is good support around $54,000, and panic has gradually subsided. Today's US employment data showed that both April and May data were revised downward, which confirmed Powell's deflationary path and the possibility of early rate cuts, increasing the probability of rate cuts in September and December. On Friday, the US released data showing that the unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, higher than the expected value of 4.00% and higher than the previous value of 4.00%; the non-farm employment population in June was 206,000, higher than the expected value of 190,000 and lower than the previous value of 272,000.

The U.S. unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, the highest since November 2021, and non-farm payrolls also fell sharply. The interest rate swap market once again fully priced in the Fed's two rate cuts before the end of the year. When the U.S. stock market opened in the evening, the Nasdaq index rose 0.8% to a record high of 18,333 points; the S&P 500 index rose 0.4% to a record high of 5,565 points; and the price of gold rose 1.3% to $2,385 per ounce. Economist Rubeela Farooqi said: The slowdown in employment in the second quarter, coupled with the rising unemployment rate and the slowing growth path shown in recent data, all support the case for a rate cut this year. There is enough evidence that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. Economist Peter Cardillo said that the economy is accelerating downward faster than previously thought. If this situation continues next month and hourly wages do not continue to grow, then he believes that the Fed will cut interest rates in September and cut interest rates again in December. It's very numb today. Is it the end this time? Some time ago, addresses marked as "US government" and "German government" successively transferred out BTC, and the currency market fell; today, MtGox, which has attracted more attention, also began to pay compensation, and BTC fell again. The bull market turn of BTC includes two factors, one is its own halving, and the other is external monetary easing. The recent compensation of MtGox has led to an increase in liquidity supply, and the external monetary environment is approaching easing. There have been 6 30% declines in the bull market in history. The decline this time is about 26%. According to the normal bull market, after digesting the negative impact of MtGox and the selling of Germany and the United States, BTC will return to the environment of halving and external monetary easing. If you think that the cyclicality of BTC is still there, you can only wait. The old man has fallen numbly, and the old man believes that the cyclicality of BTC is still there. #美国6月非农数据高于预期 #德国政府转移比特币 #美联储何时降息？