WHERE TO INVEST IN THE 2nd HALF
Analysts see cryptocurrencies just at the beginning of a cycle of new highs
Also discover three sectors and three virtual currencies that could appreciate in value in the second half of 2024.
The middle of 2024 has passed and investors are now taking stock of the year so far and what to expect going forward. For those who have bet on bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies, in addition to US exchanges, there is not much to complain about.
In the first months of the year, BTC renewed all-time highs, at $73,750.07 in March. Since then, the largest virtual currency in the world has hovered around the level above US$60,000, even though it has broken through this support occasionally.
There was no shortage of good news for the crypto world. The approval of the first spot bitcoin index funds (ETFs) in the United States helped boost prices. Even ethereum (ETH) got its own.
In the view of Pedro Lapenta, head of research at Hashdex, it is no exaggeration to say that this is the biggest launch of ETFs in history.
The numbers don't let him lie: in one week, the net balance of contributions from these products reached US$ 1.2 billion.
Trillion-dollar managers, such as BlackRock and Fidelity, are behind these launches, giving a “new air” to the crypto market as a whole.
Furthermore, the halving, the most anticipated event of the year in the world of cryptocurrencies, also took place.
The halving reduced the supply of BTCs on the market, making the asset increasingly scarce — which, in general, tends to generate price appreciation.
This article is part of a special Seu Dinheiro series on where to invest in the second half of 2024.
At the beginning of the year, analysts I spoke to stated that bitcoin could indeed reach a price level between US$70,000 and US$80,000.
The most optimistic doubled their bet, estimating that prices could exceed US$100,000 and reach US$150,000 by the end of 2024.
The question that remains is: is there still room for an appreciation of this size? Check below what experts in this market expect for the second half of 2024.
Bitcoin: where we are and where we are going
For Marcello Cestari, analyst and trader responsible for all cryptoactive funds at Empiricus Gestão, there is a specific chart that is worth keeping an eye on for the second half of the year.
He explains that the number of cryptocurrencies held by private wallets (wallets) is greater than that on crypto brokers (exchanges), which signals that we may be “in the beginning to the middle of the cycle” of the bull market — that is, the appreciation period.
This is because it is easier to sell bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies within exchanges. Therefore, in periods of low prices or profit-taking, the flow to brokers tends to be greater.
On the other hand, when there is an accumulation in wallets, the tendency is towards greater stability and price formation. At current levels, which resemble those seen in the 2021 bull market, there is a strong sign that bitcoin is still far from the end of the bull cycle.
How far will the price of BTC go?
If the base scenario comes to fruition, Cestari, from Empiricus, believes it is “very feasible” that the price of bitcoin could reach US$100,000 or US$120,000. Hashdex's head of research agrees, keeping his forecast in the $100,000 range.
In the analysts' view, the effect of the halving at the beginning of the year should be felt in the medium and long term and may begin to be felt soon. “Gold inflation today is 1%, higher than that of BTC, which is around 0.8%”, explains Cestari.
Hashdex's Lapenta showed a series of charts on BTC's momentum. He explains that in the previous three cycles, bitcoin showed a strong appreciation in the period between 360 and 500 days (that is, somewhere between 11 and 16 months) after the halving.
At the moment, the market is somewhere close to 60 to 70 days after the halving. “Naturally, during this period, there is great price volatility, but the trend is towards appreciation”, he explains.
Furthermore, he states that bitcoin technology is still being adopted and that appreciation should occur in the long term. “It’s part of the development until it becomes giant,” he says.
In other words, bitcoin could consolidate itself as a store of value, given that there is an even greater entry of institutional investors — who tend to buy in droves.
Source: Renan Souza - 07/04/24
Website: seudinheiro
https://www.seudinheiro.com/2024/criptomoedas/bitcoin-btc-criptomoedas-onde-investir-segundo-semestre-rens/