July 5, 2024, may be the birth of a new anniversary in the cryptocurrency circle. In the 24-hour BN, only 5 currencies rose, and the remaining 410 trading pairs all fell, with the largest drop exceeding 35%. The entire network had a 24-hour liquidation of 685 million US dollars in futures, and 590 million long orders. According to the data, only 5 mining machine models can still maintain profitability, and most miners have surrendered.

Mentougou has officially started to repay Bitcoin and BCH to creditors. This should be the biggest negative impact. I think the negative impact should have been factored into this wave of decline. Then there is the negative impact caused by the German government's continuous selling of Bitcoin. I think this round has little to do with the US economy, because the US dollar has also fallen for four consecutive days since July 1. So after this negative impact was really implemented, the market stopped falling.

Now let's get down to business, which is what everyone is most concerned about: Is the cow still there? I think there are two situations:

1. The mid-term upward trend has ended, similar to the market sentiment after 519 in 2021, which fell below the freezing point, but it has not reached the extreme. The extreme situation still exists. We mentioned last time that if there is another 519, the price of Bitcoin will be around 43,000. But after 519, there was a 3-month consolidation, and finally there was another bull market, which was from July 20, 2021 to November 2021. So it cannot be said that the bull market of the big cycle has ended, but the mid-term upward process has ended, or the first half has ended and entered the halftime break.

2. The bull market ends and directly enters the bear market. From a technical point of view, the bull market has actually ended, which means that there will be no unilateral upward trend in the future. The trend changes from long positions when the market falls too much to short positions when the market rises too much, until the bear market stage is entered. This will be very difficult for spot investors, because if they directly enter the bear market, they may have to wait another 10-12 months to turn around.

In summary, I personally think that the first scenario is more likely. However, due to the large decline, it may take longer to recover. In August, it may only recover, but it cannot recover. To explain, the "recovery" I mentioned refers to the beginning of profit. If the price of Bitcoin cannot rise above 70,000, most of the altcoin investors will not be able to recover, so the recovery time may be in October or even November.

Looking at the chip distribution from the on-chain data, it can be said that there is basically no chip concentration area in the 51000-58000 area, that is, there is no support point. According to the rising situation at that time, it took only 3 days to break through 60000 US dollars, so the next area is very likely to be 51000. If it reaches 4, it is very likely to reach the extreme position of 519, 43000.

Market interpretation:

Today's non-farm data is still very important. Now most of the negative expectations in the market have been released. The only uncertainty is released in tonight's macroeconomic data. Let's wait and see. But there is another problem. Since the ETF was closed yesterday, it was suppressed in the non-trading period today. Therefore, when the U.S. stock market opens in the evening, there will most likely be another round of damage caused by large-scale redemptions of ETFs. It is still necessary to be cautious when bottom fishing.

The daily line of Erbing also hit a new low, which led to a linked market trend.

In terms of cottage:

This decline is the most damaging to copycats. This round of ETF bull market is filled with a large number of new projects listed, and most of the projects listed this year reached their peak when they were launched. For copycats, the probability of a turnaround may be even smaller, especially for some copycats with a small circulating market and a large number of unlocked copycats. If you look at the scenery from the top of the mountain, it is possible that when the next bull market comes, it will be difficult to turn around.

For example, CAKE and UNI after May 19, 2021 were the most popular currencies before May 19, 2021. Not to mention a comeback, it is difficult to even make a profit even now.

Of course, there are definitely some sectors that can turn around, such as the RWA sector, which is most likely to be favored by institutions, and the public chain sector, which may become the second SOL by relying on the continuous prosperity and development of the ecosystem.

Bitcoin Panic Greed Index: 29 (Panic)

There are only a few weeks left before the launch of the Ethereum spot ETF. Will the market rebound? You can continue to pay attention to the May#ETHETF #德国政府转移比特币 #BTC走势分析 $UNI $SOL