During the day FUD and the drain continued. There are two topics - mt.GOX, already known to us, to which were added the actions of the German government, which sends Bitcoins to the exchange.
Why do I consider this manipulation?
First about mt.GOX
All the panic is due to the movement of large quantities of BTS yesterday (and after the closure of the American market, where there was a short day due to the holiday), and several small transactions today.
At the same time, there were no statements or announcements from the manager of mt.GOX. Although he is in Japan, both yesterday and today are working days. And usually he always announces when something significant happens.
There were only a few transactions for penny amounts. But this was immediately thrown into the information space.
This stuffing, obviously, is the main goal of today's actions.
There may indeed be some payments to mt.GOX. But there are many nuances that make this fact not as scary for the market as they are trying to present it.
I’ve already written about facts and figures.
There will definitely not be 140K BTS dumped into a glass (and this is exactly what the market is afraid of).
What about the German government?
The facts are as follows:
- The German government actually confiscated 50,000 BTC at the beginning of the year
It is a fact.
- Since June 19, Bitcoins have been repeatedly transferred from the German government wallet to the exchange. This is also a fact.
Today 4000 BTS were transferred. Moreover, 1700 - to an unknown address (not the fact that the exchange).
Not such significant amounts. But the market believes that the German government is going to drain everything that is left of their 50K BTS.
Combined with the story of mt.GOX dark and scary).
But let's get back to the facts.
We see transfers, but we don’t see sales per glass. Maybe the exchange itself buys from the government through OTC.
Because waiting for the minimum for almost 2 months in order to transfer Bitcoins from a well-known wallet to the exchange and pour them into a glass is, in my opinion, too much even for the German government. They are, of course, far from geniuses, judging by the results of their activities and the situation in Germany. But not completely idiots).
So neither the fact of sale nor the plan to dump everything that was left of 50K has been proven at all.
And most importantly, all these actions coincide with FUD on the topic of mt.GOX payouts
And, by a strange coincidence, they are also held in the complete silence of officials and on a thin weekend market (when American markets are closed, volumes are minimal).
Coincidence? Did it just happen that way? And they decided to write about it all because they wanted to?)
Well well).
Market capitalization is approaching 2 trillion (remember the significance of this level). The Bitcoin dominance index is growing (alts are falling quite strongly, Ethereum has already dropped below 3100), but so far there is no extreme drop.
Could there still be a drain?
Yes. Now they will make a couple of transactions for a couple of thousand Bitcoins and they will say that mt.GOX is distributing payments.
Why not, if the theme works?
But it will all end very predictably. It turns out that with mt.GOX everything is not as was immediately told, or in general that payments will come later. By a strange coincidence, it is at this time that the ETF-ETH launch date will be announced. And something will happen on the market)).
What to expect tomorrow with the opening of the market, what will IBIT do?
If by that time Bitcoin on the spot does not return above 60K, IBIT will collapse, and the spot will be pulled along with it.
If it returns, IBIT will grow normally.
By the way, our dollar index is at a monthly low. If this situation continues with the opening of the US markets, then when the situation with mt.GOX becomes clearer, Bitcoin will greatly surprise us all.