In the morning, BTC continued to fall, breaking through the June 25 low of 58.3k and briefly breaking through 58k. However, this short-selling attack is still nearly $2,000 away from the 56.5k level achieved on May 1, 2024.

The public account of the museum: Sister Miao’s trading diary, avoid wasting beautiful skirts.

All the media in the industry, both large and small, cooperated to prepare for the crisis of "the storm is coming". The main material is that Mt.Gox started to pay compensation this month, and on the basis of the three-month selling pressure, it was revealed that the US, German and other governments transferred the previously confiscated large amounts of stolen BTC to the exchange, and it seemed that they were preparing to sell them off. As a result, the selling pressure crisis has been brewing and has become a short-term local consensus.

  • Bitcoin started a fresh decline, trading below the $60,000 area.

  • The price is trading below $61,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

  • There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $60,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data source from Kraken).

  • The pair might struggle to clear the $60,850 resistance and start a fresh increase.

Bitcoin price is currently trading below $61,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $60,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. In case of a sharp rise, the price is likely to face resistance near $60,000 and the trend line. The first key resistance is near $60,850 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the down move from the $63,798 high to $57,890 low.

The next key resistance level could be $61,500. If the $61,500 resistance level is clearly broken, a steady rise could start and push the price higher. In this case, the price could rise and test the $62,250 resistance level. If there is any further rise, it could push BTC towards the $63,500 resistance level in the near term.


Will BTC’s losses be even greater?


If Bitcoin fails to break out of the $60,000 resistance zone, it is likely to continue its decline. An immediate support on the downside is near $58,250. The first major support is at $58,000. The next support is currently formed near $57,800. If the price declines further, it could drop to the $56,500 support area in the near term.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is currently accelerating in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.

The main support level – $58,250, followed by $58,000.

Major Resistance Levels – $59,250 and $60,000.

Perhaps today is Thursday, a US holiday, and the market is closed for one day. It is not unreasonable for the short sellers to take action at this time.

The reason is simple. The US BTC ETFs, which are considered to be one of the pillars of the market, are on holiday today. During the holiday, buying has stopped. The short sellers picked such a holiday and unexpectedly launched an attack!

Two weeks have passed, and I have been wondering what will happen next? This bull and bear market is very different from the 20-24 year cycle! Some crypto funds said that the previous bottom estimate of $50,000 was too conservative, and now they see $40,000!

Standard Chartered Bank said that next month, in August, BTC will hit a new high, and will exceed $100,000 in November during the US presidential election. It is still expected to reach the target range of $150,000 to $200,000 by the end of 2025. People are wondering all day whether BTC will fall to $40,000, or successfully bottom out again near $60,000, or will it soon break through $100,000?

Now it doesn’t look like the big bull market of 20-21 (unlimited QE) nor the bear market of 21-22 (industry leverage cleanup)

1. Structured bull market: A small number of tokens may have market-making plans and funds, so they can rise; most projects have consumed their funds and expectations in the past three years, and it is difficult to pull up the market again (the standard is some public chains, DeFi and GameFi projects that were financed in the last round of bull-to-bear financing). Here I would like to specifically praise Manta, Alt Layer and other awesome project parties, they have the right time, right place and right people.

2. BTC ETF: Americans are not stupid, they only buy BTC; they have little preference for altcoins

3. Exchange strategies are conservative under the regulatory background: there are very few attempts such as Binance on Spaceship and OKX on Shib, and there are basically no Ponzi projects that last for more than a month.

4. High FDV and low circulation: This is the specialty of FTX and SBF. People and exchanges of this generation seem to be unable to handle it. New coins are supposed to be a good show in a bull market, but this time they are particularly rubbish, especially OKX new coins. Most of Binance’s new coins can still be pulled up, but OKX’s new coins are all rubbish VCs who only come to reduce their holdings.

The biggest problem encountered by copycats: the previous round of project owners and investors are dumping and reducing their holdings (because they are almost burning through money), and a large number of VC projects are still waiting to be listed, so we have to wait until these projects are completed before there may be a market.

This round of bull market will be very difficult to play, buy the bottom in batches

Although it is said that toads want to eat black swan meat, more than one black swan may appear in a round of market. In 2022, Luna collapsed, Three Arrows went bankrupt, and FTX went bankrupt; any desperate behavior is a gamble. According to the washing time of Bitcoin, this round of bull market will be distributed for a longer time than before, with a bull period and a bear period, so you need to be more patient. Everyone should remember to arrange the mainstream at the right opportunity, and operate the cottage according to the position of Bitcoin. The position of Bitcoin is horizontal at a high level, so you can only reduce your position and buy less. If you are too anxious to fill your position, you will eventually be trapped, and the tolerance rate will be very low.

Again, I hope there will be negative news like Mentougou, because opportunities will definitely come with it, but there will be no opportunities with positive news. Buying the bottom in batches is a more greedy and interesting way to buy than fixed investment.